Forecasts Give Democrats 78% to 93% Odds for the House and 63% to 76% for the Senate, Two Days Before the Nov. 3 Midterms
Forecast models and betting markets rate Democrats as favorites for the House, while Republicans, who hold the Senate 53-47, point to past polling misses and a group of Senate races still within the margin of error.
U.S.
Trump Says U.S. Must Still 'Take Care Of' One or Two Iran Sites, Names Pickaxe Mountain; Khamenei Orders 'Unrestricted' Response to Any Attack
Trump rejected Tehran's seven-day plan on Sept. 26. Speaking Saturday, he said talks are 'going fine' but Iran is 'not very reliable,' while Iranian negotiators met Qatari mediators in Doha.
Justice Department Asks Judge to Order Alaska to Set Aside Ballots Ranking Dan J. Sullivan; U.S. Attorney Confirms Criminal Probe
The request came days before the Nov. 3 Senate election, while state officials argue it cannot be done without breaking ballot secrecy and Democrat Mary Peltola denies any role in the second Sullivan's candidacy.
Fairfield, California, Police Say Pregnant Woman Killed, Six Wounded in Targeted Shooting at Spirit Halloween Store; No Arrest as of October 31
Police say one suspect opened fire Friday night inside the store at Solano Town Center. Hours earlier, a man was fatally shot at a Spirit Halloween in Madison Heights, Michigan, in a separate case where police made an arrest at the scene.
State Department Clears Possible $2.1 Billion Sale of 500 Patriot PAC-3 Missiles to Ukraine, With Canada, Germany, Norway and EU Loan Funds Paying
The U.S. government says no American money is involved, but Ukraine's president says the missiles, which Lockheed Martin has not yet built, may take years to arrive.
Ninth Circuit Panel Votes 2-1 to Deny Justice Department Bid to Set Aside California Mail Ballots of About 20,000 Flagged Voters
The Friday ruling was the administration's second appeals-court loss this week on the issue. It leaves in place a district judge's refusal to order the ballots set aside before the Nov. 3 midterms, and the Justice Department may now turn to the Supreme Court.
Judge Orders Three Taxpayer-Funded Trump Administration Ads Pulled, Including '$5,000 to Americans'; Plaintiffs Had Sought at Least 13
U.S. District Judge Jennifer Rochon found three online videos paid for by the Executive Office of the President likely broke a federal ban on partisan spending, and the White House called her order 'lawless.'
N.C.
North Carolina Early Voting Ends With 2.6 Million Ballots in State Count, Up More Than 37% From 2022; Aggregator Puts Total Near 2.8 Million, With Registered Democrats at 38.4% and Registered Republicans at 26.2%
In-person early voting ended Saturday, Oct. 31. The State Board of Elections count reported by WLOS was 2,612,249 ballots (the source of the 37% figure). The OnPoint Politics aggregator, as of Nov. 1, shows 2,816,820. Election Day voting on Tuesday, Nov. 3, has not yet been counted.
North Carolina Among 20 States Joining FTC Suit Alleging Dollar General Charged More at Register Than on Shelf
The federal complaint was filed Oct. 26 in Tennessee and cites tens of thousands of customer complaints. Dollar General says it will fight the case and that the FTC sued instead of continuing to discuss the company's counteroffer.
Stein Asks N.C. Supreme Court to Review Ruling That Let Auditor Boliek Appoint Elections Boards
Gov. Josh Stein's Oct. 21 petition challenges a 2-1 Court of Appeals decision from Sept. 16 that upheld a 2024 law moving elections-board appointments from the governor to the state auditor. Auditor Dave Boliek, a Republican, defends the ruling. No response to the petition or Supreme Court action has been reported.
Justice Department Charges 18 Noncitizens in North Carolina With Voting Illegally in 2024, Bringing the State's 2026 Total to 30
Seventeen of the 18 hold green cards. The charges, announced five days before the Nov. 3 election, are part of a national Justice Department push on noncitizen voting. Supporters call it overdue enforcement of the citizenship requirement. Critics say the confirmed cases are few and the timing risks intimidating lawful voters.
North Carolina's 1st District Race Hits $52.9 Million in Ads and Reservations as of Oct. 27, a Record for a U.S. House General Election, AdImpact Says
Ad tracker AdImpact says more money has been spent or booked on ads in the Don Davis–Laurie Buckhout rematch than in any House general election it has tracked. The race is in a district Republicans redrew in 2025.
Union-Backed Group Launches N.C. Medicaid Outreach Campaign; Gov. Stein's Office Estimates More Than 250,000 Could Lose Coverage Under Federal Rules Starting Jan. 1, 2027
The national nonprofit Keep Your Care, formed by the SEIU union and two health advocacy groups, held its North Carolina launch in Raleigh on Oct. 29. The 250,000 estimate comes from Democratic Gov. Josh Stein's office, not from a federal or independent count.
Finance
Week Ahead: Midterm Elections, Apple and Palantir Earnings, ISM Data and Friday's October Jobs Report Follow a Third Straight Weekly Drop for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq
Forecasts for October job growth run from 45,000 to 65,000, and 55,000 is one figure among several. The Nov. 6 report comes out three days after Tuesday's election, and CNBC counts 138 S&P 500 companies reporting earnings this week.
Nasdaq Falls 2.86% as Intel Drops 28.6% on Weak Outlook and Amazon Closes Down 1.41%; Index Ends October Down More Than 5%
On Friday, Oct. 30, the S&P 500 fell 1.82% and the Dow fell 1.09%. Investors weighed AI spending against cash flow after earnings from Intel and Amazon. Outlets disagree on whether the Nasdaq 100 closed in a 'correction.'
Expiring December Brent Settles at $117.64 and WTI at $104.12, Highest Since Late April, After a Tanker Is Hit in Hormuz; Brent Up 13.6% and WTI 15.2% in October
Iran's Revolutionary Guard says several tankers hit mines, a claim U.S. Central Command has rejected. The more active January Brent contract settled at $113.43, and seven core OPEC+ members meet on Sunday, Nov. 1.
OpenAI Cuts Funding Target to About $20 Billion at $1.25 Trillion Valuation, FT Reports; Nasdaq Falls 2.86% Friday
The FT says OpenAI lowered its ask from the $30 billion at $1.4 trillion reported in late September, and that its first close will come in under $20 billion. The news came on the Nasdaq's worst day since June 5, while rival Anthropic prepares a November stock listing.
U.S. GDP Grew at a 3.4% Annual Rate in the Third Quarter, Above Forecasts; September PCE Inflation Rose to 3.6% From a Year Earlier
The government reports came out Oct. 29, the day after the Federal Reserve held rates on a 10-2 vote. Both dissenters wanted a hike, and markets put the odds of a December hike at roughly 82% to 85%.
Fed Holds Rates at 3.75%-4.00% on 10-2 Vote; Cook and Hammack Dissent in Favor of a Quarter-Point Hike
The Fed's statement calls inflation 'elevated' and growth 'strong.' Futures traders raised their bets on a December hike. Chair Kevin Warsh said politics 'played no role' in a decision that came six days before the Nov. 3 midterms.
World
Araghchi Says Hormuz Could Reopen Two Days After U.S. Meets Iran's Conditions; Trump Says Talks Are 'Going Fine'
Iran's foreign minister says Qatari mediators shortened Tehran's timeline for reopening the strait, but no direct U.S.-Iran meeting is planned; separately, U.S. Central Command says Iran's latest claim about a U.S. drone is false.
Russian Strikes Cut Power to Hundreds of Thousands of Ukrainian Households; Zelensky Says Russia Is Exploiting a Shortage of Ballistic-Missile Interceptors
Zelensky says Russia fired 1,940 drones, more than 1,580 guided bombs and 44 missiles at Ukraine in one week. The strikes come two days after the U.S. approved a possible Patriot interceptor sale and ahead of planned U.S.-Ukraine-Russia talks.
Houthis Claim Six Attacks on Saudi Oil Sites and Airports; Saudi-Led Coalition Reports Intercepting Missiles
None of the six claimed hits has been independently confirmed; the claims came three days after Saudi, Pakistani and Turkish officials met Iranian leaders in Tehran, and Brent crude traded at $115.74 early Friday.
Iran Says Four Tankers Hit Mines on Hormuz Routes It Calls Unauthorized; U.S. Says the Main Shipping Lanes Are Clear of Mines
Iran has not named the ships, and no independent source has confirmed the four mine strikes. A separate tanker, the Louise 1, was confirmed hit by explosives that a small boat attached to its hull off Oman.
Polish President Returns From Senegal Trip After Government-Backed Judge Suspends Constitutional Tribunal Chief and Police Deploy at Court
The tribunal's leadership, President Karol Nawrocki and the opposition Law and Justice party call the one-month suspension a coup. Prime Minister Donald Tusk's government calls it part of restoring the rule of law after years of court changes under Law and Justice.
Final Israeli Count: Netanyahu Bloc 53 Seats, Eisenkot Bloc 48, Arab-Led Parties 19; No Side Reaches 61
Netanyahu's Likud says the vote was stolen through fraud in Arab communities, and police say they have found no evidence. Bennett and Liberman reject a government that relies on Arab parties, and President Herzog begins consultations next week.
Analysis
Unbiased, evergreen deep-dives on the bigger questions — not breaking news.
What Fauci's Released Diary Documents About the U.S. COVID-19 Response — and What It Leaves Unresolved
A 1,141-page personal diary released by Sen. Rand Paul's committee is roughly one-third routine administrative logging; a minority of entries bear directly on contested questions, and a few conflict with contemporaneous public statements.
Eight Months of Mamdani: What New York's Record Actually Shows, and What It Cannot Yet Show
A claim-by-claim audit of what Zohran Mamdani has delivered, how New Yorkers judge it, and what the evidence does and does not license anyone to conclude about the rest of the country.