Early Vote Tops 19 Million as of Oct. 23; AP Finds Advance Voting Up From 2022 in Several Senate Battleground States
AP says early voting in Texas is up 74% from the same point in 2022, and up more than 30% in North Carolina, Maine and Ohio. Georgia and Michigan are about even with 2022, and analysts warn that early totals do not show who will win.
Nineteen million ballots, and two ways to read them
By Oct. 23, more than 19 million Americans had already cast midterm ballots, NPR reported[3]. That's more than at the same point in 2018 or 2022. It is also a number that keeps moving. A day earlier, Spectrum News put the count at more than 16 million, in 41 states and Washington, D.C.[2]
The 16 million figure came from the University of Florida Election Lab, not from the Associated Press. It included more than 10 million mail ballots and about 6 million early in-person votes[2]. AP ran its own count. It found more than 13 million early votes nationally, against about 9 million at the same point in 2022[1]. Each tally has its own method, so the totals differ. All of them point up.
Where the surge is biggest
AP's Oct. 21 analysis looked at states that could decide control of the Senate. Early voting in Texas is up 74% from the same point in 2022. In Kansas it has more than doubled[1].
Maine, North Carolina and Ohio are each up more than 30%[1]. Democrats are trying to flip Republican-held seats in each of those states[1].
Not every battleground is up. In Georgia and Michigan, early totals look about the same as in 2022[1]. AP also found that Republicans are a smaller share of early voters than four years ago "in most of these states." That's most, not all[1].
Local officials describe the same energy. In Texas, Harris County recorded 105,000 ballots on the first day. Dallas County recorded 76,000, which beat its 2018 midterm record of 59,000[10]. Election Day is Nov. 3[6].
The Democratic case: this is real, and it's broad
Democrats and allied commentators say the surge isn't confined to blue states. It shows up in red-leaning Senate states like Texas, Kansas and Ohio[1]. They also point to polls. In an ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll, 72% of Democrats said they were certain to vote, against 65% of Republicans[4].
A Reuters/Ipsos poll found 36% of Democrats were very enthusiastic, against 29% of Republicans[4]. Their analogy is past wave years. When the party out of power is fired up, it tends to show up early and in large numbers[11][13].
They also have an incentive. Early-vote stories build momentum, which helps with fundraising and with getting supporters to vote. Campaigns can then spend the final days chasing people who haven't voted yet[11].
The stakes are high. Democrats need to flip Republican-held seats to win the Senate[1]. And if early voters are mostly people who would have voted anyway, the apparent lead could shrink on Election Day[4].
The Republican case: the comparison is shakier than it looks
Republicans and conservative analysts make a different argument. Their voters have long voted mostly on Election Day, and Republican candidates have won that day's vote[4]. GOP campaigns now push early voting. That moves some of those votes earlier and makes comparisons with 2022 less reliable[6].
They add that "party share" only measures who has voted so far. It doesn't show what the final electorate will look like. National Review also argued that polls may be missing Republican voters[7].
The incentive here is to keep GOP voters from feeling discouraged or treating the race as already decided. Republicans also want to push back on media stories about a "wave"[6][7].
They face real pressure, though. A Fox News poll showed Democrats ahead 52% to 46% on the generic congressional ballot, which asks voters which party they'd back for Congress[5]. That puts the burden on Republicans to show Election Day turnout can close the gap[4].
What the data can't tell you
Analysts say early-vote totals are a snapshot, not a forecast. Party registration shows how a voter is registered. It doesn't show how they voted. Texas doesn't report party at all, and its county early-vote data doesn't include mail ballots[10].
The data also can't say whether people who skip some elections will turn out later[4].
Habits are shifting on both sides. Democrats requested fewer mail ballots than in past elections, according to an NBC News/University of Pennsylvania analysis. In North Carolina, Democratic mail-ballot requests are down 40% from 2022, compared with 18% for Republicans[9].
Many Democrats appear to be voting in person instead. Marist polling found Democrats' confidence in the Postal Service fell from 86% before the 2024 election to 60% in September[9]. So a switch from mail to in-person voting can change year-to-year comparisons without any change in enthusiasm.
How the headlines pulled apart
The same numbers produced very different headlines. AP's was data-led and included the counterexamples, Georgia and Michigan. Its words "big boost" lean slightly interpretive[1]. NBC focused on how Democrats vote, not how many, which adds context that complicates simple comparisons[9].
On the left, Daily Kos wrote that "Republicans are struggling to get their base to the polls." That reads a lower GOP share as failure and leaves out that Republicans tend to vote on Election Day[11]. The Assembly wrote "Democrats Are Trouncing Republicans in Early Voting"[16]. Newsweek called Texas county records a "warning sign to Republicans." Texas has no party breakdown, so the records alone can't show that[13][10].
On the right, National Review framed Democratic optimism as an "early-voting paranoia problem." Its point about changing habits is sound, but the label is meant to deflate[6]. Conservative Brief went further, with "MIDTERM STUNNER" and "Fantastic for Republicans." The commentary it cited argued only that Democrats' lead may be smaller than they expect[8].
The ballots already cast are locked in. What nobody knows yet is how they split by candidate, or whether Election Day turnout will run higher or lower than usual. Early-vote data can't answer either question[4][10].
Summary
More Americans are voting before Election Day than at this point in 2022. NPR reported on Oct. 23 that over 19 million people have already voted in the midterms[3]. A day earlier, Spectrum News put the count at more than 16 million in 41 states and Washington, D.C. That figure came from the University of Florida Election Lab, and it included more than 10 million mail ballots and 6 million early in-person votes[2]. The Associated Press did its own count. It found more than 13 million early votes nationally, against about 9 million at the same point in 2022[1].
AP looked closely at states expected to decide control of the Senate. Early voting in Texas is up 74% from 2022, and in Kansas it has more than doubled. Maine, North Carolina and Ohio are each up more than 30%[1]. Not every battleground is up, though. In Georgia and Michigan, early totals look about the same as in 2022[1]. AP also found that Republicans are a smaller share of early voters than four years ago 'in most of these states,' not in all of them[1].
The main dispute is over what these numbers mean. Democratic-leaning outlets and some polls read them as a sign of Democratic enthusiasm. An ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll found 72% of Democrats certain to vote, against 65% of Republicans[4]. Conservative writers and many neutral analysts urge caution. Republicans have long voted mostly on Election Day. Some GOP voters are now shifting to early voting. Democrats, for their part, are moving from mail ballots to in-person voting[6][9]. A turnout count also shows how many people voted, not whom they voted for[4][10].
The Event
On Oct. 21, 2026, the Associated Press published an analysis comparing early voting with the same point in the 2022 midterms. It found early voting up 74% in Texas, more than doubled in Kansas, and up more than 30% in Maine, North Carolina and Ohio. Georgia and Michigan were about level with 2022[1]. National early-vote counts kept rising that week. Spectrum News, using University of Florida Election Lab data, reported more than 16 million on Oct. 22[2]. NPR reported over 19 million on Oct. 23[3]. Election Day is Nov. 3[6].
Undisputed Facts
- AP found that early voting in Texas is up 74% from the same point in 2022, and that Kansas has more than doubled[1].
- AP found increases of more than 30% in Maine, North Carolina and Ohio. Early totals in Georgia and Michigan were similar to 2022[1].
- AP counted more than 13 million early votes nationally, against about 9 million at the same point in 2022[1].
- University of Florida Election Lab data showed more than 16 million votes in 41 states and D.C. as of Oct. 22. More than 10 million were cast by mail and about 6 million in person[2]. NPR reported over 19 million by Oct. 23[3].
- AP said Republicans make up a smaller share of early voters than four years ago in most of the Senate states it examined[1].
- Texas county early-vote data has no party breakdown and does not include mail ballots[10].
- Democrats requested fewer mail ballots than in past elections, according to an NBC News/University of Pennsylvania analysis. In North Carolina, Democratic mail-ballot requests were down 40% from 2022, compared with 18% for Republicans[9].
The Pressure
Strip away the moralizing and blame. What structural realities persist regardless of which narrative wins?
- Changing voting methods
- Democrats are moving from mail to in-person early voting, and GOP campaigns are pushing their voters to vote early. Both shifts change who shows up in the early count, whatever happens to overall enthusiasm[6][9].
- Senate map
- Democrats are trying to flip Republican-held seats in Texas, Kansas, Maine, North Carolina and Ohio. So early turnout there gets heavy scrutiny[1].
- Momentum messaging
- Both parties use early-vote stories to motivate their own voters. One side calls it a wave. The other side says the numbers are misleading[6][11].
Material realityMany more ballots are already cast than at this point in 2022. AP counted over 13 million against about 9 million, and the total passed 19 million by Oct. 23[1][3]. Those ballots are locked in. What is not known is how they split by candidate. It is also not known whether Election Day turnout will be higher or lower than usual. Early-vote data cannot answer either question[4][10].
Narrative as a weaponPartisan outlets on both sides are making the early-vote numbers say more than they show. Democratic-aligned sites present a lower GOP share of early voters as proof of a wave[11][16]. Some right-leaning sites call the same data good news for Republicans[8]. The more careful conservative argument, from National Review, is narrower: changing voting habits make the numbers hard to read[6]. The most careful reporting, from AP, NBC, ABC and the Texas Tribune, says both things: turnout is up sharply in several states, and early turnout is not a forecast[1][4][9][10]. The story's '16 million' figure came from a University of Florida data tracker, not from AP's own count. It was out of date within a day[2][3].
How Each Side Sees It
Each major actor’s view — how it frames things, its underlying incentive, and how it’s materially affected. Tap a side to read it.
Frames it asDemocrats argue the surge is broad and real. It shows up in red-leaning Senate states like Texas, Kansas and Ohio, not only in blue ones[1]. They point to polls. In the ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll, 72% of Democrats said they were certain to vote, against 65% of Republicans. In a Reuters/Ipsos poll, 36% of Democrats called themselves very enthusiastic, against 29% of Republicans[4]. Their analogy is past wave years: when the out-party is fired up, it shows up early and in large numbers[11][13].
WhyDemocrats want the numbers to build momentum. That helps with fundraising and with getting more supporters to vote early. It also lets campaigns spend the final days chasing voters who have not yet voted[11].
Impact on themDemocrats need to flip Republican-held seats to win the Senate. AP noted they are trying to do that in each of the surge states[1]. If early votes are mostly from people who would have voted anyway, the apparent lead could shrink on Election Day[4].
Frames it asRepublicans argue that early totals mislead when voting habits change. GOP voters have long voted mostly on Election Day, and Republican candidates have won that day's vote[4]. GOP campaigns are now pushing early voting, which moves some of those votes earlier. That makes comparisons with 2022 shakier[6]. They also say the 'party share' measures who has voted so far, not how the final electorate will look. National Review argued that polls may be missing Republican voters[7].
WhyRepublicans want to keep their voters from feeling discouraged or treating the race as already decided. They also want to push back on media stories about a 'wave'[6][7].
Impact on themA Fox News poll showed Democrats ahead 52% to 46% on the generic congressional ballot[5]. That puts Republicans under pressure to show their Election Day turnout can make up the gap[4].
Frames it asAnalysts say early-vote data are a snapshot, not a forecast. Party registration tells you how a voter is registered. It does not tell you how they voted. Some states, like Texas, don't report party at all[10]. The data also cannot say whether people who skip some elections will turn out later[4]. On top of that, many Democrats switched from mail to in-person voting after losing confidence in the Postal Service. Among Democrats, that confidence fell from 86% before the 2024 election to 60% in September, according to Marist polling[9].
WhyAnalysts and data trackers want their numbers read accurately. They also want to avoid repeating past cycles, when early-vote stories were taken as forecasts and proved wrong[4][9].
Impact on themTheir warnings shape how outlets frame the numbers. Readers are often left with competing stories built from the same data[4][6].
Frames it asOfficials report record turnout and steady operations. In Texas, Harris County recorded 105,000 first-day ballots. Dallas County recorded 76,000, beating its 2018 midterm record of 59,000[10].
WhyOfficials want to show that the system can handle heavy turnout and to keep public trust in the count[10].
Impact on themHeavy early turnout means longer lines and more staff work. It also shapes what can be counted early on election night, depending on each state's rules[2][3].
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The Bias Ledger average rating 5.3
The same story, as framed by outlets across the spectrum, ordered least to most biased. The bias score (1 = straight, 10 = heavily spun) is an AI assessment of that framing — click an outlet to see its track record. The tell is the word choice or omission that reveals the angle.
| Outlet | Vantage | Bias | How they frame it | The tell |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Associated Press | U.S. center | 2 | Many states deciding control of the Senate are seeing a big boost in early voting, AP analysis shows | Data-led. It includes the counterexamples (Georgia, Michigan) and keeps the 'in most states' qualifier on party share. The words 'big boost' and 'voter enthusiasm' lean a little interpretive. |
| NBC News | U.S. center-left | 2 | Early vote analysis: Mail ballot concerns are changing how Democrats vote | It focuses on how Democrats are voting, not on how many. That gives readers context that weakens simple comparisons with 2022. |
| National Review (Opinion) | U.S. right | 5 | The Democrats Face Their Own Early-Voting Paranoia Problem | It casts Democratic optimism as 'paranoia' that mirrors the GOP's own. The point that voting habits are changing is valid, but the label is meant to deflate. |
| Newsweek | U.S. center (clickable framing) | 6 | Texas Early Voting Breaks County Records in Warning Sign to Republicans | It treats turnout records as a partisan 'warning sign.' Texas data has no party breakdown, so the records alone cannot show that[10]. |
| Daily Kos | U.S. left (Democratic activist site) | 8 | Republicans are struggling to get their base to the polls | It reads a lower GOP share of early voters as GOP failure. It leaves out that Republicans tend to vote on Election Day. |
| Conservative Brief | U.S. right (partisan aggregator) | 9 | MIDTERM STUNNER — Early Voting Numbers Released and It's Fantastic for Republicans | Its headline calls the numbers 'fantastic for Republicans.' The commentary it relies on argues only that Democrats' lead may be smaller than they expect. |
References
- Many States Deciding Control of the Senate Are Seeing a Big Boost in Early Voting, AP Analysis Shows — Associated Press · U.S. wire service, member-owned cooperative; center
- Early voting surges in several states with competitive Senate races — Spectrum News · Owned by Charter Communications; straight-news national desk
- Over 19 million people have already cast their votes for the midterms, data shows — NPR · U.S. public radio, partly publicly funded; center-left audience
- Early vote shows Democratic enthusiasm high in some key states, but only one piece of puzzle: ABC News analysis — ABC News · Disney-owned network news; center
- Fox News poll shows Democrats lead generic ballot 52-46 for midterms — Fox News · Fox Corp.-owned; U.S. right-leaning network (poll run by bipartisan pollsters)
- The Democrats Face Their Own Early-Voting Paranoia Problem — National Review (Opinion) · U.S. conservative opinion magazine
- Democrats' Midterm Polling Has a Missing Republican Voter Problem — National Review (Opinion) · U.S. conservative opinion magazine
- MIDTERM STUNNER — Early Voting Numbers Released and It's Fantastic for Republicans as Report Argues Dems May Have An Early Voting Enthusiasm Problem — Conservative Brief · Partisan pro-Republican aggregator
- Early vote analysis: Mail ballot concerns are changing how Democrats vote — NBC News · Comcast-owned network news; center to center-left (analysis with University of Pennsylvania)
- What early voting data in Texas means for results — The Texas Tribune · Nonprofit newsroom funded by foundations, members and corporate sponsors; center
- Republicans are struggling to get their base to the polls — Daily Kos · Democratic activist community site; U.S. left
- Texas Early Voting Breaks County Records in Warning Sign to Republicans — Newsweek · Privately owned newsmagazine; traffic-driven framing, no fixed partisan line
- Democrats Are Trouncing Republicans In Early Voting — The Assembly · North Carolina nonprofit digital magazine; center-left