Netflix and SpaceX Report Third-Quarter Results Tuesday; Meta and Tesla Report Wednesday

Four reports, three versions of SpaceX's number

Four of the most-watched U.S. companies report quarterly results this week. Netflix and SpaceX go first, after the market closes on Tuesday, October 20^[5][6]. SpaceX's webcast is set for 4:30 p.m. ET and Netflix's call for 4:45 p.m. ET^[1][5]. Meta and Tesla follow after the close on Wednesday, October 21, and Tesla's call is set for 5:30 p.m. ET^[8][9]. As of this writing, none of the four had released results.

The most-quoted number of the week is SpaceX's expected revenue, and it isn't one number. Reuters, citing LSEG data, puts it at $12.74 billion, with earnings of 14 cents a share^[6]. Bloomberg's consensus is about $12.7 billion^[12]. TipRanks and some other previews say $12.9 billion^[11].

The gap comes from how "consensus" is made. It's an average that a data firm builds from the analysts it surveys. LSEG, Bloomberg, FactSet and Zacks each survey different analysts, so their averages differ. A company can "beat" one consensus and "miss" another. That makes the word "beat" depend on whose figure a reader saw.

What SpaceX has to grow into

Any of those figures would be a big jump from the $7.8 billion SpaceX reported for the second quarter. That was up 92% from a year earlier, with a net loss of $541 million^[13]. Most of the expected growth is tied to its AI business^[12].

SpaceX's own release shows how uneven the business is. Its connectivity segment, which includes Starlink, was the only one with an operating profit in the second quarter. That profit was $1.66 billion^[13]. The space segment lost $542 million at the operating level, and the AI segment lost $1.257 billion.

Bulls point to the AI segment's growth. It brought in $2.56 billion in the second quarter, up 247% from a year earlier, driven by new cloud contracts^[13]. Evercore ISI expects SpaceX to end 2026 at an annual revenue pace of about $104 billion, with AI doing "most of the heavy lifting"^[6]. A "run-rate" takes one recent period's revenue and projects it over a full year. It shows momentum, but it isn't a promise of future sales.

The bill for building computing capacity

The question running through the week is about AI spending. Meta, SpaceX and Tesla are spending tens of billions of dollars on data centers, chips and robotics. Supporters see capacity that will pay off. Skeptics say revenue hasn't yet caught up with the costs^[6][14][15].

Supporters argue that computing power is the scarce input of the next decade. In their view, whoever builds it first sets prices and wins customers, as early cloud builders did. Management also has an incentive to keep investors funding the spending until the new capacity earns money^[6][15].

The sums are large. Meta's 2026 capital spending guidance is $130 billion to $145 billion. About $50.9 billion was spent in the first half, which implies $79 billion to $94 billion in the second^[15]. Evercore estimates SpaceX's capital spending could reach about $151 billion in 2027^[6].

Skeptics focus on how that spending hits profit. Capital spending, or "capex," buys long-lived things like data centers and chips. A company spreads that cost over the asset's working life, which is called depreciation. So today's spending lowers profits for years. If revenue doesn't grow fast enough, margins shrink. Bulls answer that the same accounting means today's profits understate what the assets will eventually earn.

One number needs a caveat. Meta's expected earnings jump of about 460% is mostly a quirk of the comparison. Last year's third quarter included a large one-time, non-cash tax charge, so almost any normal quarter looks like a huge gain next to it^[8][16]. CNBC also notes that Meta has a roughly $10 billion legal charge tied to child-safety claims, which many bullish previews leave out^[8].

Tesla's squeeze and the merger question

Tesla's numbers look different. Analysts expect revenue of about $27.88 billion to $27.9 billion, slightly below a year ago. They expect per-share profit to fall to about 43 cents from 50 cents^[6][9]. LSEG puts those declines at about 1% for revenue and 14.5% for earnings per share^[8]. Other compilers' revenue figures run from roughly $27.7 billion to $28.3 billion.

Tesla has already disclosed its third-quarter deliveries: 486,500 vehicles. It also reported production of 464,400 and 13.7 GWh of energy-storage deployments^[8][9]. Bulls say the car business now funds autonomy, robots and energy, so a profit dip is investment, not decline. They note Tesla is on track to grow deliveries in 2026 for the first time since 2023^[6].

Then there's the merger talk. Supporters of a Tesla–SpaceX combination see shared AI ambitions under one roof. Critics raise governance concerns about one leader merging two public companies he controls. Musk told investors in July that "we can't talk about combining companies and that kind of thing on an earnings call"^[6].

Analyst Dan Levy told clients a merger announcement could come before Tesla's annual meeting, which must be held by December 6. He said a late-October or early-November announcement could make shareholder approval harder^[6].

Netflix's turn from subscribers to ads

Netflix is making a different case. It says it's shifting from a subscriber-count story to an advertising and pricing story. It guided to about $3 billion in 2026 ad revenue, roughly double 2025's estimated $1.5 billion^[4]. Its ad-supported plan passed 250 million monthly active viewers by May 2026^[4].

For the quarter, Netflix guided revenue to about $12.86 billion, roughly 12% growth. Analysts expect $12.87 billion to $12.88 billion^[1][2][5]. They also expect operating margin, the share of each sales dollar left after running costs, to widen to 33.2% from 28.2% a year earlier^[22].

The pressure is real. Netflix shares are down about 25% this year^[16]. One preview says this would be its slowest third-quarter growth in three years^[4]. Ads and margins have to carry growth as subscriber gains slow^[1][3].

A jittery market and a silent Fed

The backdrop is rough. The Nasdaq Composite fell 4.5% last week, its worst week since June, as chip stocks sold off^[14]. Investors are also weighing hotter-than-expected inflation data.

That matters because of how rates work on tech valuations. Higher rates make profits expected years from now worth less in today's dollars. That hits AI companies hardest, since much of their value rests on distant profits^[14]. The Federal Reserve meets October 27–28, which is next week, not this one. It's in its pre-meeting communications blackout and is expected to hold rates steady, according to Proactive Investors^[14]. With the Fed silent, earnings are this week's main market driver.

Options prices show how much movement traders expect. They imply swings of about 9.57% for Netflix, about 7.8% for SpaceX and about 6% for Meta after results^[1][11][15]. An "implied move" is the swing, in either direction, that traders are paying to protect against. It measures expected volatility, not direction.

Same week, different framing

Outlets framed the week differently, though mainstream partisan coverage was thin. Reuters cast the SpaceX and Tesla reports as one "test" of Musk's AI spending, with merger talk in the headline. It also carried analyst figures and Musk's on-the-record comment on earnings-call merger talk^[6]. Proactive Investors used a similar "test" frame for the AI trade, with a clear macro backdrop^[14]. CNBC ran a plain schedule headline^[8].

Trading and enthusiast sites leaned toward drama. TipRanks used the high end of the SpaceX range, $12.9 billion, without noting the lower figures from other compilers^[11]. Teslarati tied SpaceX's results to Tesla shareholders' interests, which fits its Musk-focused audience^[18]. KuCoin, a Seychelles-registered crypto exchange, led with a possible "first profitable quarter post-IPO." It also called the earnings report "on-chain data," a tell of its crypto audience^[17]. The consensus it cited doesn't clearly support that upbeat bar.

The reports themselves will settle some of this. They won't settle whether the spending pays off. Netflix and SpaceX come first on Tuesday. Meta and Tesla follow on Wednesday, and the Fed meets a week later.