JPMorgan Estimates Mideast Crude Exports at 98% of Pre-War Levels as Saudi Bypass Pipeline Runs at About Half Capacity
Saudi Arabia has brought its East-West pipeline back to roughly 3.5 million barrels a day after a September drone strike, and JPMorgan analysts say regional crude shipments are nearly back to normal, though Brent crude still closed above $100 on Sept. 29 and refined-fuel exports lag behind.
Two Numbers, Same Week, Pulling in Opposite Directions
Middle East crude is back to 98% of what it was before the Iran war. That's JPMorgan's estimate, released in a Sept. 29 note, based on a 10-day average of 17.5 million barrels a day flowing out of the region [1][13]. The bank called it "a remarkable recovery for a region still at war" [1][3].
The same day, Brent crude — the global benchmark — closed at $102.59 a barrel [2]. That's still north of $100, and still up more than 16% for the month of September [9]. If exports are almost fully healed, why is the world's most-watched oil price still elevated?
The answer sits in a Saudi pipeline that reopened at half strength, a separate market for the fuel that comes out of crude, and a diplomatic track with the U.S. and Iran that hasn't produced anything concrete. Each piece tells a slightly different story about how close to "normal" things really are.
The Pipeline That Skips the Strait
Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline runs about 1,200 kilometers, carrying crude from the kingdom's eastern oil fields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu [5]. Its whole purpose is to let Saudi oil reach the ocean without passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula that normally carries about a fifth of the world's oil — some 17 million barrels a day before the war [7]. When Hormuz is threatened, this pipeline is the kingdom's main workaround.
That's exactly why it became a target. Drones struck the pipeline in early September, and Saudi Arabia shut it down on Sept. 11 [8]. CNBC reported the drones were launched from Iraq [9]. Reuters, citing three unnamed sources, reported the line had restarted "at a low rate" on Sept. 22 [6].
By Sept. 29, flows had climbed to about 3.5 million barrels a day [2]. That sounds like a lot, and it is — but the pipeline's full capacity is 7 million barrels a day. So it's running at roughly half power. The line is open again, but it hasn't come close to healing.
Saudi Arabia has made no public statement about the September restart that surfaced in this reporting, so the operational details so far come from anonymous sourcing, not the kingdom or Saudi Aramco directly [6]. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia pushed more oil than usual through Hormuz itself, along a lane protected by the U.S. Navy, and posted its highest monthly exports since the war began — about 6 million barrels a day in September [7].
Why "Crude Is Back" Doesn't Mean "Gas Prices Are Back"
Crude oil and the fuel in your car's tank are not the same product. Crude has to be refined into gasoline and diesel before it's usable, and that refining and shipping happens on its own track, separate from how much raw crude leaves the region [1][3].
That distinction matters here because the two numbers have diverged. Regional crude exports are estimated at 98% of pre-war levels [1]. Refined-fuel exports — the diesel and gasoline that actually reach drivers and businesses — are running at only about 3 million barrels a day, and JPMorgan itself calls the overall recovery "uneven" [1][3].
That gap helps explain why the national average U.S. gas price climbed to $4 during the war even as crude supply was said to be recovering [12]. It also explains part of why Brent still sits above $100: oil prices carry a built-in cushion for the risk of future disruption, not just a tally of today's barrels [2][10][11]. Every attack or stalled round of diplomacy adds to that cushion. Every restart or hopeful signal chips away at it.
JPMorgan's own view is that this cushion isn't going away soon — the bank expects energy inflation to persist even as the shortage panic in crude markets cools [4].
A Denied Offer, and a Track With No Deal Yet
Diplomacy has been moving prices almost as much as pipelines. U.S. crude briefly fell below $100 after President Trump said in September he was open to talking with Iran at the United Nations [11]. Days later, when hopes for a breakthrough faded, Brent climbed back above $105 [10].
Then, on Sept. 28, Axios reported — citing U.S. officials — that Trump was willing to offer Iran sanctions relief and the release of frozen Iranian funds in exchange for concrete concessions on its nuclear program. Trump denied making any such offer in a Truth Social post the next day, Sept. 29 [10]. That leaves the sanctions-relief claim disputed rather than confirmed, a live disagreement rather than settled history.
For the U.S. side, the incentive is straightforward: lower prices at home and a nuclear deal on its own terms. For Iran, it's sanctions relief and keeping leverage over the strait that a fifth of the world's oil still has to pass through [11][10]. Neither side has an obvious reason to move first, and traders have shown they'll swing prices on a single headline in either direction.
Whose Number Is This, Really?
JPMorgan's 98% figure comes from bank research, and bank research isn't neutral data — it also feeds trading desks and clients who position themselves based on what the note says [1][4]. That doesn't make the estimate wrong, but it's worth knowing where the number originated before treating it as official.
Coverage of the figure split by audience. Bloomberg and CNBC, both U.S. business outlets, led with the 98% number but kept JPMorgan's own caveats about uneven recovery and lagging fuel exports intact [1][2]. Futu News, a Chinese-owned retail brokerage site, wrapped the same figure in trading-desk language and exclamation marks, pitching it as a market call rather than a straight news update, though it also preserved the inflation warning [4].
Nairametrics, a Nigerian business outlet writing for an oil-exporting audience, stated the 98% in its headline without attributing it to JPMorgan at all, turning an estimate into a flat fact [13]. Seoul Economic Daily, serving an oil-importing South Korean audience, headlined the pipeline's "restart" with no mention that it was running at half capacity [14]. Al Jazeera, funded by the Qatari government, covered the alternative routes accurately but tagged its coverage "US-Israel war on Iran," assigning responsibility for the conflict in the label itself [5][16]. The National, linked to the Abu Dhabi government, framed prices as moving on U.S.-Iran diplomacy rather than on Saudi supply next door [10]. No right-leaning U.S. outlet coverage of this specific recovery story turned up in this reporting, nor did any from the Times, Post, or Guardian; the closest left-leaning material was The Hill's focus on the $4 pump price rather than export volumes [11][12].
None of that makes any single outlet's number false. It does mean the same 98% reads as reassurance, as a trading signal, or as an incomplete picture, depending on who's telling it and who's meant to read it.
What Comes Next
The pipeline is running, but at half of what it's built for. Crude exports are estimated near normal; refined fuel is not. Diplomacy has moved prices sharply in both directions within the same week, and the sanctions-relief report at the center of the latest exchange remains denied by the person it was attributed to.
None of that resolves into a single verdict about whether the region's oil supply has actually recovered. It depends which number you're looking at, and which side is doing the counting.
Summary
Crude oil exports from the Middle East have climbed back close to their levels before the Iran war, according to JPMorgan. In a Sept. 29 note, analysts led by Natasha Kaneva estimated regional crude shipments at 17.5 million barrels a day [1]. That is a 10-day average, and it equals 98% of pre-war levels [1][13]. The bank called it "a remarkable recovery for a region still at war" [1][3]. The 98% figure is JPMorgan's estimate, not official data.
Part of the rebound comes from Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline. It carries crude about 1,200 km across the kingdom to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, so tankers can skip the Strait of Hormuz [5]. Saudi Arabia shut the line on Sept. 11 after a drone strike [8]. CNBC reported the drone was launched from Iraq [9]. Reuters reported a restart on Sept. 22 "at a low rate" [6]. By Sept. 29, flows were reported at about 3.5 million barrels a day [2]. That is roughly half of the pipeline's 7 million barrel-a-day capacity. So the pipeline has resumed, but it is not back to full use.
Markets reacted, but prices remain high. Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell 2.6% on Sept. 29 to close at $102.59 a barrel [2]. U.S. crude (WTI) fell about 3.5% to $89.38 [2]. Brent was still up more than 16% for September, and it was well above $100 [9]. JPMorgan itself warned that the recovery is uneven. Exports of refined fuels like diesel and gasoline are only about 3 million barrels a day [1][3]. The bank also said energy inflation is unlikely to ease soon [4].
The main dispute is what "near normal" means. Business outlets and the bank treat it as a sign that the shortage trade is cooling [1][4]. Others point to still-high prices, a lagging fuel supply, and U.S.-Iran talks that have not produced a deal [10][2].
The Event
Saudi Arabia shut its East-West crude pipeline on Sept. 11, 2026, after a drone strike, halting loadings at Yanbu [8][5]. Reuters reported on Sept. 22 that the pipeline had restarted at a low rate [6]. By Sept. 29 flows had reached about 3.5 million barrels a day, roughly half of capacity [2]. On Sept. 29 JPMorgan estimated Middle East crude exports at 17.5 million barrels a day, or 98% of pre-war levels, and Brent crude closed down 2.6% at $102.59 [1][2].
Undisputed Facts
- Saudi Arabia shut the East-West pipeline on Sept. 11, 2026, after drones struck it [8][5].
- The pipeline runs about 1,200 km from eastern oil fields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, letting Saudi crude skip the Strait of Hormuz [5].
- Reuters, citing three sources briefed on the matter, reported the pipeline restarted on Sept. 22 at a low rate [6].
- Flows were reported at about 3.5 million barrels a day as of Sept. 29, about half the line's 7 million barrel-a-day maximum capacity [2].
- A Sept. 29 JPMorgan note estimated Middle East crude exports at a 10-day average of 17.5 million barrels a day, or 98% of pre-war levels [1][13].
- The same note put refined-product exports, such as diesel and gasoline, at about 3 million barrels a day and called the recovery uneven [1][3].
- Brent crude fell 2.6% to $102.59 and WTI fell about 3.5% to $89.38 on Sept. 29 [2].
- Saudi Arabia exported about 6 million barrels a day in September, its highest level since the Iran war began, according to CNBC [7].
The Pressure
Strip away the moralizing and blame. What structural realities persist regardless of which narrative wins?
- Chokepoint geography
- About a fifth of the world's oil normally passes through Hormuz. Before the war, the strait carried about 17 million barrels a day [7]. Only a few routes skip it, and the Saudi East-West line is the biggest. That is why an attack on it moves world prices [5][16].
- Crude is not fuel
- Crude must be refined before it becomes gasoline or diesel. Regional crude exports near pre-war volume do not mean fuel supply is back. Refined-product exports are only about 3 million barrels a day, so pump prices can stay high while crude recovers [1][3].
- Risk premium
- Oil prices include extra cost for the fear of future disruption, not just today's barrels. That is why Brent stays above $100 even with volumes near normal. Each attack or failed round of talks adds to the premium, and each restart or hopeful signal takes some away [2][10][11].
Material realityAs of Sept. 29, JPMorgan estimated regional crude exports at 17.5 million barrels a day, about 98% of pre-war levels [1]. But the route is fragile. The Saudi pipeline runs at about 3.5 million barrels a day, half its capacity, after two attacks this year [2][15][8]. Hormuz itself was running at about 77% of pre-war flow on a seven-day average as of Sept. 25, per CNBC [7]. Brent closed at $102.59 [2], U.S. fuel prices remain elevated [12], and no U.S.-Iran deal has been reached [10].
Narrative as a weaponJPMorgan's note is the main source for the 'near normal' story, and bank research also serves clients who trade on it [1][4]. Business wires spread the 98% figure. Some carry the bank's caveats about fuel and inflation, and some drop them [1][13][14]. Saudi Arabia benefits from a 'reliable supplier' story but made no public statement on the September restart that surfaced here. Early reports relied on unnamed sources [6]. Gulf state-linked outlets focus on U.S.-Iran diplomacy and assign blame through labels [16][10]. The assigned dek's 'flows resumed' is accurate but leaves out that flows are at half capacity. Its '98%' needs to be attributed to JPMorgan and limited to crude.
How Each Side Sees It
Each major actor’s view — how it frames things, its underlying incentive, and how it’s materially affected. Tap a side to read it.
Frames it asThe kingdom's case is that it built spare routes so it can keep supplying the world when Hormuz is under threat. The pipeline is proof that the investment works [5][16]. Saudi Arabia also pushed more crude through Hormuz while the pipeline was down, along a U.S.-protected lane off Oman [7]. By its own export numbers, it is a reliable supplier even in wartime [7].
WhyKeep market share and revenue during the war. Show buyers, especially in Asia, that Saudi supply is dependable [7][16].
Impact on themHigher exports at high prices bring strong revenue. But its pipeline is a proven target, and it has been shut twice in 2026 by attacks, in April and September [15][8].
Frames it asThe bank says the region's oil arteries are "flowing again" and calls it "a remarkable recovery for a region still at war" [1][3]. Its data point is concrete: 17.5 million barrels a day of crude, near pre-war volume [1]. It also flags the limits itself. Refined fuel lags, and energy inflation is unlikely to ease [3][4]. In that view, the panic over crude shortage is fading. But fuel costs are a separate, slower problem.
WhyGive clients a tradable read on supply. Bank research also informs trading positions, so its estimates are not neutral data [1][4].
Impact on themA "normalizing" call tends to push prices down. If it is wrong, the bank's credibility with clients suffers [4].
Frames it asFor drivers and businesses, the test is the pump price, not export volume. Crude near pre-war volume does not help much if refined-fuel exports are only about 3 million barrels a day [1]. The national average gas price hit $4 during the war [12]. Brent is still above $100 [2]. From this angle, the relief is real but small.
WhyLower gasoline and diesel prices [12].
Impact on themFuel costs pass through to household budgets and freight. JPMorgan expects energy inflation to persist [4].
Frames it asThe White House has signaled some openness to talks: Trump said in September he was open to talking with Iran at the UN [11]. Separately, Axios reported Sept. 28, citing U.S. officials, that Trump was willing to offer Iran sanctions relief and release frozen Iranian funds in exchange for concrete nuclear concessions; Trump denied making that offer in a Sept. 29 Truth Social post, so the sanctions-relief claim is disputed, not settled. Iran is the state at war with the U.S. and Israel. Qatari coverage frames the conflict that way [16]. The talks in New York made little progress, per The National [10]. Both sides can argue the other must move first.
WhyWashington wants lower prices and a nuclear deal on its terms. Tehran wants sanctions relief and to keep leverage over Hormuz [11][10].
Impact on themTraders treat talk headlines as price-moving. U.S. crude fell below $100 when Trump said he was open to talks at the UN, and Brent topped $105 when hopes faded [11][10].
Like this article?
The Bias Ledger average rating 3.4
The same story, as framed by outlets across the spectrum, ordered least to most biased. The bias score (1 = straight, 10 = heavily spun) is an AI assessment of that framing — click an outlet to see its track record. The tell is the word choice or omission that reveals the angle.
| Outlet | Vantage | Bias | How they frame it | The tell |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bloomberg | U.S. center (business) | 2 | Mideast Crude Oil Flows Hit 98% of Pre-War Level, JPMorgan Says | It attributes the 98% to JPMorgan in the headline and keeps the bank's 'uneven' caveat. The word 'hit' lends some finality to a 10-day average. |
| CNBC | U.S. center (business) | 3 | Oil prices fall as crude exports recover at Saudi Arabia's Red Sea ports | The Sept. 29 piece is straight and gives the half-capacity figure. Earlier headlines in the series, such as 'Oil's safety net is fraying', were more dramatic. |
| The National | UAE state-linked (Abu Dhabi-owned) | 3 | Oil prices top $105 as hopes fade for US-Iran breakthrough | It treats diplomacy as the price driver. A Gulf outlet frames prices around U.S.-Iran talks rather than neighboring Saudi supply. |
| Nairametrics | Nigerian business (oil-exporter audience) | 3 | Middle East crude exports return to 98% of pre-war levels as Hormuz flows rise | It states the 98% without attribution in the headline, turning JPMorgan's estimate into a flat fact. |
| Al Jazeera | Qatari state-funded | 4 | From Yanbu to Sohar: Tracking Saudi Arabia's alternative oil routes | Its section tag 'US-Israel war on Iran' assigns responsibility for the conflict in the label. The reporting on the routes themselves is factual. |
| Seoul Economic Daily | South Korean business (oil-importer audience) | 4 | Saudi Pipeline Bypassing Hormuz Restarts, Easing Oil Prices | 'Restarts' with no qualifier leaves out that flows were at about half capacity. The headline claims a clear cause-and-effect on prices. |
| Futu News | Chinese-owned brokerage news (retail investors) | 5 | Middle Eastern crude oil exports have rebounded to 98% of pre-war levels! A JPMorgan research report reveals that "oil shortage trading" is cooling... | Its exclamation marks and trading-desk language ('oil shortage trading') pitch the note as a market call. It does keep the inflation caveat. |
References
- Mideast Crude Oil Flows Hit 98% of Pre-War Level, JPMorgan Says — Bloomberg · U.S. financial news, owned by Bloomberg L.P.; market-oriented, center
- Oil prices fall as crude exports recover at Saudi Arabia's Red Sea ports — CNBC · U.S. business news, owned by Versant (Comcast spin-off); market-oriented, center
- JPMorgan and Goldman See Mideast Oil Flows Near Pre-War Levels — Energy Connects · Energy-industry news site linked to the ADIPEC conference (UAE-based); republishes Bloomberg
- Middle Eastern crude oil exports have rebounded to 98% of pre-war levels! A JPMorgan research report reveals that "oil shortage trading" is cooling, but energy inflation is unlikely to abate. — Futu News · News arm of Futu Holdings, a Chinese-owned retail brokerage; trading-oriented
- Why Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline matters for global oil — Al Jazeera · Funded by the government of Qatar
- Saudi Arabia Restarts East-West Oil Pipeline, to Resume Exports From Yanbu, Sources Say — Reuters · International wire service; center
- Saudi Arabia crude oil exports hit highest level since Iran war began despite pipeline outage — CNBC · U.S. business news; market-oriented, center
- Saudi Arabia shut down East-West crude oil pipeline after multiple attacks by drones from Iraq — CNBC · U.S. business news; market-oriented, center
- Oil prices off highs after reports Saudi pipeline ramping back up — CNBC · U.S. business news; market-oriented, center
- Oil prices top $105 as hopes fade for US-Iran breakthrough — The National · Owned by Abu Dhabi state-linked interests; reflects UAE government outlook
- U.S. crude oil tumbles back below $100 after Trump says he's open to talking to Iran at UN — CNBC · U.S. business news; market-oriented, center
- Average price of gas hits $4 as Iran war heats back up — The Hill · U.S. political news, owned by Nexstar; center
- Middle East crude exports return to 98% of pre-war levels as Hormuz flows rise — Nairametrics · Private Nigerian business news site; oil-exporter-economy audience
- Saudi Pipeline Bypassing Hormuz Restarts, Easing Oil Prices — Seoul Economic Daily · South Korean business daily; oil-importer audience
- Saudi Arabia says key oil pipeline back to full capacity after attacks (April 12, 2026 — earlier episode) — Al Jazeera · Funded by the government of Qatar
- From Yanbu to Sohar: Tracking Saudi Arabia's alternative oil routes — Al Jazeera · Funded by the government of Qatar