Migration Policy Institute Estimates About 660,000 U.S. Deportations in Fiscal 2026, Below the White House's 1 Million Goal
The think tank's report, based on federal data through July 2026, counts 980,000 deportations since January 2025. Arrests inside the country are growing. About 80% of the people deported had no criminal conviction, and the White House says the count misses its bigger result.
The pace that fits two stories
A think tank released a number on Thursday, October 22, 2026. It puts U.S. deportations in fiscal year 2026 at about 660,000. That is an estimate for the year ending September 30, based on data through July 31 [1][2]. The Migration Policy Institute (MPI), a Washington group that studies immigration, wrote the report [2].
Both sides can use that number. It is about 26% higher than the yearly average under President Joe Biden from 2021 to 2024. It is also well short of the 1 million a year the administration said new congressional money would allow [1].
The gap is easy to picture. A pace of 660,000 a year is about 1,800 people a day. A pace of 1 million would be about 2,700 a day.
What MPI counted
MPI's fact sheet covers the first 18 months of the second Trump term. From January 20, 2025, through July 31, 2026, it counts about 980,000 deportations by ICE and Customs and Border Protection [2][3]. For fiscal 2025, which began before Trump took office, it counts about 620,000 [1].
About 69% of the deportations involved people first stopped at the border. Deportations that begin with arrests inside the country are a smaller share, but they are growing [1][2].
The word "deportation" covers three different things here. A removal comes with a formal order and usually bars the person from returning for years. An enforcement return sends someone back, often at the border, without a formal order. An administrative return is a quicker step with even less paperwork [3].
MPI's breakdown is 59% removals (about 580,000), 30% enforcement returns (about 300,000), and 11% administrative returns (about 110,000) [3]. Returns are fast and cheap. That matters when today's pace is compared with 1.86 million deportations in 2000, a year of heavy border traffic [1].
The 80% question
MPI also found that only about 20% of everyone deported had a criminal conviction. Put the other way, about four in five did not [3][6]. Among people who had lived in the U.S. for two years or more, 71% had no conviction [3].
Among formal removals alone, MPI's figure is that 31% had convictions. The average was 44% in fiscal years 2009 through 2021 [6]. These two figures could not be independently confirmed in our review, so they rest on MPI's report.
This is why critics test the numbers against Trump's "worst of the worst" pledge. Immigrant advocates argue the data contradict it. They also point out that arrests inside the country are rising, which raises the stakes for long-settled immigrants and their U.S.-citizen relatives [1][2][3].
The White House scorecard
The administration says the deportation count is the wrong measure. White House spokesperson Lauren Bis answered the report by saying Trump "has delivered the largest reduction in illegal immigration in modern history" [1].
There is a mechanism behind that view. About 69% of deportations start at the border. When far fewer people cross, fewer quick border cases exist to deport [1]. Reaching a high total then depends on arrests inside the country, which are slower and cost more per person. So a closed border pulls the deportation count down, and officials count that as the policy working [1][13].
DHS also counts "self-deportations," meaning people who leave on their own. In September 2025 it said 2 million people had left, including an estimated 1.6 million self-deportations. By December 2025 it put the total above 2.5 million [7][8]. DHS sees these departures as a result at lower cost than arrest and detention.
The administration has its own incentive here. It wants a clear win on its central promise before the midterm elections. It also benefits from keeping the broadest measure, total departures, at the center of the debate [7][8][13].
Who controls the numbers
Outside researchers question how the self-departure figures are built. The Center for Migration Studies of New York, a pro-immigrant research institute, calls the 2 million claim a "myth" [9]. It argues the estimates come from survey data and inflate success. MPI says DHS's departure claims are about double its own estimate of people leaving on their own. We could not confirm that comparison independently [2].
Behind the dispute is a data gap. DHS stopped publishing its regular deportation statistics in January 2025. MPI rebuilt the count from records released under the Freedom of Information Act [1].
The report's author, Marc Rosenblum, left DHS in July 2026 after about 10.5 years running its statistics office. That gives the count credibility inside government [2]. MPI is also foundation-funded and generally favors regulated legal immigration [2][3]. Nearly every outlet reviewed led with MPI's figures [1][3][4][6].
Money gives the dispute its stakes. Republican-controlled Congress set aside about $170 billion for immigration enforcement and border security. That includes $75 billion in extra money for ICE [1]. A shortfall against the 1 million pledge invites a budget question: is the money buying what was promised?
Same report, different headlines
The wire services kept to the numbers. The AP's headline gave both the rise and the shortfall [1]. Reuters led with the plain 18-month total of 980,000 [3]. Newsweek rounded that up to "nearly 1 million," which readers could easily confuse with the 1 million-a-year goal [4]. NewsNation put "historic" in quotation marks, questioning the administration's word before showing the evidence [5].
We found no right-leaning outlet that ran its own story on the report. The Washington Times ran the AP copy unchanged [14]. Earlier Fox News coverage stressed records, with headlines like "Trump admin expected to shatter all-time deportation record" [10]. Our search did not reach The New York Times, The Washington Post or MSNBC, so that part of the picture is missing.
Gulf and Latin American outlets led with the no-conviction share. Arab News wrote "Four in five immigrants deported under Trump 2.0 have no criminal record" [6]. That wording is looser than MPI's. MPI counts convictions, and a person can have charges or a record without one. The Rio Times ran "US Deported 980,000, Only 20% Convicted," and the word "only" adds a judgment the figure doesn't need [12].
Al Jazeera set U.S. deportations inside a wider story of rights concerns over removals to third countries [11]. Those countries must absorb large numbers of returnees, and some face U.S. pressure to take people who aren't their citizens.
Each yardstick is real. The total, the border drop and the share without convictions each tell part of the story. What's still open is which one Congress and voters will use as the administration moves toward the end of fiscal 2026, when the full-year count will come due.
Summary
The Trump administration is on pace to carry out about 660,000 deportations in fiscal year 2026 (October 2025 to September 2026), according to an estimate in a report the Migration Policy Institute (MPI) released Thursday, October 22, 2026[1][2]. MPI is a Washington think tank that studies immigration. The 660,000 figure is about 26% higher than the yearly average under President Joe Biden from 2021 to 2024. It is still well short of the 1 million deportations a year the administration promised when Congress gave it billions of new enforcement dollars[1]. In practice, 660,000 a year works out to about 1,800 people a day. A 1 million pace would mean about 2,700 a day.
Across the full period from January 20, 2025, through July 31, 2026, MPI counted about 980,000 deportations by ICE and Customs and Border Protection[3][2]. About 69% involved people first stopped at the border. Deportations that start with arrests inside the country are a smaller share but are growing[2][1]. MPI found that only about 20% of everyone deported had a criminal conviction[3][6].
The main dispute is not over the count. It is over what to measure. MPI and much of the press judge the administration against its own 1 million target and its promise to focus on criminals[1][3]. The White House says the right measure is the drop in illegal immigration. Spokesperson Lauren Bis said Trump "has delivered the largest reduction in illegal immigration in modern history"[1]. DHS has also claimed that millions of people left on their own, which it calls "self-deportation." Outside researchers question how those departures are estimated[7][8][9].
The Event
On October 22, 2026, the Migration Policy Institute published a fact sheet titled "U.S. Deportations and 'Self-Deportations' in the First 18 Months of the Second Trump Term"[2]. The report counts about 980,000 ICE and CBP deportations from January 20, 2025, through July 31, 2026. It estimates fiscal year 2026 at about 660,000[1][3]. The report draws on DHS data obtained through Freedom of Information Act requests[1]. The White House answered with a statement from spokesperson Lauren Bis[1].
Undisputed Facts
- MPI's report counts about 980,000 deportations by ICE and CBP between January 20, 2025, and July 31, 2026[3][2].
- MPI counted about 620,000 deportations in fiscal year 2025. It estimates fiscal year 2026, which ends September 30, 2026, at about 660,000[1].
- The administration said new funding from Congress would allow for 1 million deportations a year[1].
- Congress, under Republican control, set aside about $170 billion for immigration enforcement and border security. That includes $75 billion in extra money for ICE[1].
- The administration stopped publicly releasing the DHS deportation figures used in reports like this one in January 2025. MPI relied on data released under the Freedom of Information Act instead[1].
- DHS said in September 2025 that 2 million people had left the U.S., including an estimated 1.6 million 'self-deportations.' In December 2025 it put the total above 2.5 million[7][8].
- White House spokesperson Lauren Bis said in response to the report that Trump "has delivered the largest reduction in illegal immigration in modern history"[1].
The Pressure
Strip away the moralizing and blame. What structural realities persist regardless of which narrative wins?
- What counts as a 'deportation'
- MPI's count of 980,000 mixes three things[3]. A removal is a formal order. It usually bars the person from coming back for years. An enforcement return sends someone back, often at the border, without a formal order. An administrative return is a quicker step with even less paperwork. Returns are fast and cheap, so they swell totals in eras with heavy border traffic. That matters when today's 660,000 is set against 1.86 million in 2000[1]. The two numbers are built partly from different kinds of cases. People who stress the shortfall lean on the total. People who stress toughness point to the rise in formal removals and arrests inside the country.
- Fewer border crossings shrink the easiest deportations
- About 69% of deportations started at the border[1]. When fewer people cross, fewer quick border cases are available. Hitting a high total then depends on arrests inside the country, which are slower and cost more per person. This is why the administration points to total departures, and why critics point to the 1 million promise[1][13].
- Who controls the data
- DHS stopped publishing its regular deportation statistics in January 2025[1]. So outside groups rebuild counts from records released under the Freedom of Information Act. Meanwhile DHS publicizes its own departure totals that include survey-based self-deportation estimates[2][7][8].
Material realityWhatever the framing, some numbers stand. About 980,000 people were deported in 18 months[3]. The annual pace is rising: about 620,000 in fiscal 2025, and an estimated 660,000 in fiscal 2026[1]. Deportations after arrests inside the country are a growing share[2]. The new money is large: about $170 billion for enforcement and border security, with $75 billion more for ICE[1]. About four in five deportees had no criminal conviction[3]. For families and communities, a rising number of interior arrests is what changes daily life. A gap between the pledge and the pace is also a budget-oversight question for Congress.
Narrative as a weaponThree groups shape how people see this story. The White House and DHS want the scorecard to be total departures and fewer border crossings. Under that measure a shortfall in formal deportations matters little[1][7][8]. MPI and wire services want the scorecard to be a consistent, checkable deportation count measured against the administration's own pledge. Advocacy researchers and foreign media want the scorecard to be who is being deported, especially the 80% with no conviction[3][6][9]. Each measure is real. Each one alone tells a partial story.
How Each Side Sees It
Each major actor’s view — how it frames things, its underlying incentive, and how it’s materially affected. Tap a side to read it.
Frames it asThe administration says the deportation count is the wrong scorecard. Its goal is fewer people in the country illegally. Officials say that comes from three things together: far fewer border crossings, removals, and people choosing to leave[1][7][13]. In that view, a border that stays closed means fewer border cases to deport, which pulls the total down. DHS counts 'self-deportations' because it sees them as the policy working, at lower cost than arrest and detention[7][8]. Supporters also note that 660,000 is 26% above Biden's yearly average, and that arrests inside the country are climbing as new money comes in[1][2].
WhyTo show voters a clear result on its central campaign promise before the midterm elections. It also wants to keep the broadest possible measure, total departures, at the center of the debate[7][8][13].
Impact on themThe 1 million pledge was tied to about $75 billion in new ICE money. So a shortfall invites oversight questions about whether the money is buying what was promised[1]. The no-conviction share undercuts the 'worst of the worst' message[3].
Frames it asMPI argues that public policy needs a consistent, checkable count. Because DHS stopped publishing its data, someone has to rebuild that count from released records[1][2]. MPI breaks deportations down by type. Removals, which come with a formal order, were about 59%, or 580,000. Enforcement returns were about 30%, or 300,000. Administrative returns were about 11%, or 110,000. This breakdown shows what the total is made of[3]. MPI says DHS's departure claims are about double MPI's own estimate of people leaving on their own[2].
WhyTo be the trusted source on immigration numbers. MPI's work is funded by foundations, and it generally supports regulated legal immigration. The report's author once ran DHS's own statistics office, which gives the count credibility within government[2][3].
Impact on themWith official data now patchy, MPI's numbers set how the press frames the story. Nearly every outlet reviewed led with MPI's figures[1][3][4][6].
Frames it asAdvocates argue the data contradict the promise to target criminals. About 80% of deportees had no criminal conviction[3]. Among people who had lived in the U.S. two years or more, 71% had none[3]. Even among formal removals, only 31% had convictions, compared with an average of 44% in fiscal years 2009 through 2021[6]. They describe self-deportation counts as unreliable survey estimates used to inflate success[9].
WhyTo limit the reach of enforcement inside the country and to push for more transparency and due process[9].
Impact on themArrests inside the country are growing, which raises the stakes for long-settled immigrants and their U.S.-citizen relatives[2][1].
Frames it asIn Latin America, the Gulf and elsewhere, coverage stresses that most deportees had no criminal record[6][12]. Some coverage raises rights concerns about sending people to countries that are not their own[11]. The argument is about the dignity and legal protection of foreign nationals, and about whether returning countries can absorb the flows.
WhyTo protect their citizens abroad, manage returns, and keep leverage in their dealings with Washington[11].
Impact on themCountries must take in large numbers of returnees. Some face U.S. pressure to accept deportees who are not their citizens[11].
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The Bias Ledger average rating 4
The same story, as framed by outlets across the spectrum, ordered least to most biased. The bias score (1 = straight, 10 = heavily spun) is an AI assessment of that framing — click an outlet to see its track record. The tell is the word choice or omission that reveals the angle.
| Outlet | Vantage | Bias | How they frame it | The tell |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reuters | U.S./UK center (wire) | 2 | Trump administration oversaw 980,000 deportations during first 18 months | The headline gives the plain cumulative number. The body brings up the 80% no-conviction finding and the breakdown by deportation type. |
| Associated Press | U.S. center (wire) | 3 | Deportations climb under Trump but fall short of White House target, a new report finds | The headline gives both the rise and the shortfall. The lead says arrests were 'fueled by billions of dollars meant to supercharge' the agenda, which is a slightly colorful verb. It includes the White House reply and the Clinton-era comparison. |
| Newsweek | U.S. center, traffic-driven | 4 | Nearly 1 Million Deported from US Under Trump 2.0: Analysis | It rounds the 18-month total of 980,000 up to 'nearly 1 million.' Readers can easily confuse that with the 1 million-a-year goal, which the yearly pace misses. |
| NewsNation | U.S. center | 4 | Deportations under Trump reportedly exceed 980,000, but is it 'historic'? | Putting 'historic' in scare quotes questions the administration's word before the reader sees the evidence. |
| Arab News | Saudi (state-aligned) | 4 | Four in five immigrants deported under Trump 2.0 have no criminal record, study finds | It leads with the no-conviction share instead of the count or the goal, which picks the most critical finding. 'No criminal record' is also looser than MPI's measure, which counts criminal convictions; a person can have charges without a conviction. |
| The Rio Times | Brazil-based, English-language independent | 5 | US Deported 980,000, Only 20% Convicted | 'Only' adds a judgment the figure does not need. |
| Fox News | U.S. right | 6 | EXCLUSIVE: Trump admin expected to shatter all-time deportation record (earlier coverage; no Fox story on the MPI report was found) | It frames deportations around records and pace, drawing on administration sources. The MPI shortfall finding did not appear in the Fox coverage found. |
References
- Deportations Climb Under Trump but Fall Short of White House Target, a New Report Finds — Associated Press (via U.S. News & World Report) · U.S. wire service, center; nonprofit cooperative owned by member news organizations
- U.S. Deportations and "Self-Deportations" in the First 18 Months of the Second Trump Term — Migration Policy Institute · Washington think tank, foundation-funded; generally favors regulated legal immigration; this report written by a former head of DHS's statistics office
- Trump Administration Oversaw 980,000 Deportations During First 18 Months — Reuters (via U.S. News & World Report) · International wire service, center; owned by Thomson Reuters
- Nearly 1 Million Deported from US Under Trump 2.0: Analysis — Newsweek · U.S. commercial newsmagazine, center, heavily search/traffic-driven
- Deportations under Trump reportedly exceed 980,000, but is it 'historic'? — NewsNation · U.S. cable network owned by Nexstar; markets itself as centrist
- Four in five immigrants deported under Trump 2.0 have no criminal record, study finds — Arab News · Saudi English-language daily owned by SRMG, aligned with the Saudi state
- New Milestone: Over 2 Million Illegal Aliens Out of the United States in Less Than 250 Days — U.S. Department of Homeland Security · Federal agency press release; advocates for the administration's enforcement policy
- Thanks to President Trump and Secretary Noem, More than 2.5 Million Illegal Aliens Left the U.S. — U.S. Department of Homeland Security · Federal agency press release; advocates for the administration's enforcement policy
- The Two Million Deportation Myth Explained — Center for Migration Studies of New York · Pro-immigrant research institute affiliated with the Catholic Scalabrinian order
- EXCLUSIVE: Trump admin expected to shatter all-time deportation record — Fox News · U.S. right-leaning cable network owned by Fox Corp.
- Trump ramps up third-country US deportations despite global rights outcry — Al Jazeera · Qatari state-funded international broadcaster
- US Deported 980,000, Only 20% Convicted — The Rio Times · Brazil-based private English-language outlet focused on Latin America
- How President Trump Ended the Border Invasion and Restored American Sovereignty — The White House · Official administration messaging
- Deportations climb under Trump but fall short of White House target, a new report finds — The Washington Times (AP reprint) · U.S. conservative daily; here carrying unaltered AP copy