Reuters/Ipsos Poll Puts Trump Approval at 32%, Matching the Series Low; Registered Voters Favor Democrats 44%-37%
The online survey of 4,506 U.S. adults, taken Sept. 30 to Oct. 5, found 24% of Hispanic Americans approve of President Trump, the lowest Reuters/Ipsos reading in either of his terms. The Nov. 3 midterms are less than a month away.
A poll that matched its own low
Reuters/Ipsos found that 32% of U.S. adults approve of President Trump's job performance. That ties the lowest reading in either of his terms in this poll series[1]. The number isn't new, though. The poll first hit 32% on Sept. 21, in a survey of 1,277 adults[3].
The new survey ran online from Sept. 30 to Oct. 5 and reached 4,506 adults. Its margin of error is about 2 percentage points[1]. That means the true figure for all adults is likely within 2 points of 32%, in either direction. A second release on Oct. 8 drew on the same survey and again showed 32%[6].
So the headline is "record low." The more precise description is "record low, unchanged." Reuters used the first phrase. Forbes and The Hill described the flat result with the words "stagnates" and "mired"[2][5]. Both are fair summaries, but both lean toward gloom for a number that didn't move.
The number that did stand out
The sharpest finding was about Hispanic Americans. Only 24% of them approve of Trump. That is the lowest Reuters/Ipsos has recorded for the group in either term[1].
Among Hispanic registered voters, 52% said they plan to vote Democratic in the midterms. Only 26% said Republican. Reuters reported that is the largest Democratic edge in this group since Trump took office[1].
The contrast with 2024 is stark. Pew estimates Trump won 48% of Hispanic voters that year, up from 36% in 2020[4]. A separate NBC News/Telemundo poll put his approval among Latino voters at 27%[10]. That is close to Reuters/Ipsos's 24%.
Two measures that don't line up
Some coverage turned this into a claim of collapse. The blog Joe.My.God headlined it "Trump's Hispanic Support Plummets By Half" and credited Reuters[12]. Reuters didn't make that claim.
The comparison sets two different things side by side. One is 24% job approval among all Hispanic adults. The other is a roughly 48% share of the Hispanic vote in 2024. Adults include people who don't vote. Approval of a job isn't the same as a ballot cast.
Al Jazeera made a related move, though a more careful one. It put the 24% in its headline as a "new low" and added Pew's 2024 estimate beside it[4]. Both numbers are accurate. But the pairing invites a reader to treat them as a before-and-after.
One more caution applies. The 2-point margin of error covers all 4,506 adults. The Hispanic group is a smaller slice, so its margin is wider. The coverage reviewed didn't say how large that slice was.
Why the same week gives 30% and 42%
The main dispute isn't whether the numbers are accurate. It's how much they predict. Other recent polls range widely. Pew found 30% approval from Sept. 28 to Oct. 4[7]. Rasmussen, which polls likely voters, found 42% on Oct. 7[8]. The major averages sit between 37% and 38.3%[13].
The gap comes from who gets counted. A poll of adults asks everyone. A registered-voter poll keeps only people on the voter rolls. A likely-voter poll goes further. The pollster guesses who will actually vote, using past voting and stated interest. Reuters/Ipsos's 44%-37% Democratic lead among registered voters falls in the middle category, not the likely-voter one[1].
Republicans have a real argument here. Trump beat many polls in 2024. His coalition leaned on less-frequent voters, so screening for likely voters can change the picture[4]. The September Harvard CAPS/Harris poll had Democrats ahead by only 2 points among likely voters[9]. Midterms are also decided district by district, not by a national approval number.
The right's case, in the coverage reviewed, rests on this voter screen and on 2024 results. It doesn't dispute the Reuters/Ipsos figures themselves. Fox News ran a segment titled "Poll reveals Trump's low approval among Latinos as midterms loom," which accepted the finding. Only the title was reviewed, so on-air framing couldn't be judged[11]. In earlier coverage of Hispanic support, White House spokesman Harrison Fields said Latino Americans "trust him to remove barriers to achieving the American Dream"[15].
What Democrats and Hispanic voters point to
Democrats say this isn't a fluke. They note that Pew's 30% and NBC/Telemundo's 27% point the same way[7][10]. Aggregators put Democrats about 7 points ahead on the generic ballot[14]. That question asks people which party they'd back for the House, without naming candidates.
They also cite enthusiasm, which matters if turnout decides close races. The Oct. 8 release found 48% of 2024 Harris voters were "very enthusiastic" about voting. Among 2024 Trump voters, it was 30%[6]. A Reuters review found most Republicans in tight races are distancing themselves from Trump[16].
Hispanic voters aren't one bloc. NBC/Telemundo found Latino voters most worried about high prices and about Trump's immigration enforcement[10]. Many who backed Trump in 2024 did so over prices and the economy[4][10]. For them, a shift now can be the same choice made again: judge whoever is in charge when costs are high. A smaller group backs tighter border enforcement.
Each side has something to protect. Republicans want to hold Congress and keep the 2024 Hispanic gains as a lasting part of their coalition. Democrats want to show that shift was temporary and keep their own voters from feeling too sure of winning.
The House math and what's still unknown
The House stands at 222-213, so Democrats need a net gain of 5 seats to flip it[14]. Historically, a generic-ballot lead of 5 or more points has gone with gains of about 20-40 seats. That estimate comes from a polling aggregator. It's a rule of thumb, not a forecast[14].
Losing the House would give Democrats subpoena power and control over which bills reach the floor. That is why every poll this close to Nov. 3 gets read as a prediction, even when it wasn't built as one.
Reuters tied September's drop to high living costs. Its Oct. 8 report also cited cost-of-living worries and the war with Iran[3][6]. None of these numbers is a vote count. Turnout, district lines and individual candidates will decide the Nov. 3 midterms. The open question is whether the less-frequent voters who helped Trump in 2024 show up this time.
Summary
A Reuters/Ipsos poll found 32% of U.S. adults approve of President Donald Trump's job performance[1]. That ties the lowest reading in either of his terms in this poll series. The same level was first reached in a Sept. 21 poll[3]. The new survey ran online from Sept. 30 to Oct. 5. It reached 4,506 adults and has a margin of error of about 2 percentage points[1]. Among registered voters, 44% said they plan to vote for Democrats in the Nov. 3 midterms and 37% for Republicans[1].
The sharpest number came from Hispanic Americans. Only 24% approve of Trump, the lowest share Reuters/Ipsos has recorded among them in either term[1]. Among Hispanic registered voters, 52% plan to vote Democratic and 26% Republican[1]. That gap stands out because Pew estimates Trump won 48% of Hispanic voters in 2024, up from 36% in 2020[4]. A separate NBC News/Telemundo poll put his approval among Latino voters at 27%[10].
The main dispute is not whether the numbers are accurate. It is how much they predict the election. Reuters/Ipsos counts all adults, including people who will not vote. Polls that screen for likely voters tend to show Trump stronger. Rasmussen had him at 42% on Oct. 7[8]. A September Harvard CAPS/Harris poll had Democrats ahead by only 2 points among likely voters[9]. Democrats point to other evidence that the Reuters/Ipsos result is not an outlier: Pew found 30%[7], NBC/Telemundo found 27% among Latino voters[10], and the major averages sit near 37-38%[13]. Reuters/Ipsos also found Democrats more eager to vote than Republicans[6].
The Event
On Oct. 5, 2026, Reuters published a Reuters/Ipsos poll completed that day[1]. It showed Trump's job approval at 32%, unchanged from the series low first recorded in September[1][3]. The poll surveyed 4,506 U.S. adults online from Sept. 30 to Oct. 5, with a margin of error of about 2 percentage points[1]. On Oct. 8, Reuters released further results from the same survey on voter enthusiasm. They again showed approval at 32%[6].
Undisputed Facts
- The Reuters/Ipsos poll surveyed 4,506 U.S. adults online from Sept. 30 to Oct. 5, 2026, with a margin of error of about 2 percentage points[1].
- 32% of respondents approved of Trump's job performance. Reuters/Ipsos first recorded that level in a Sept. 21 poll of 1,277 adults[1][3].
- Registered voters in the poll preferred Democrats over Republicans for Congress by 44% to 37%[1].
- 24% of Hispanic Americans in the poll approved of Trump, the lowest share in either of his terms in Reuters/Ipsos polling[1].
- Among Hispanic registered voters, 52% planned to vote Democratic and 26% Republican[1].
- A Reuters/Ipsos poll released Oct. 8 found 48% of 2024 Harris voters and 30% of 2024 Trump voters 'very enthusiastic' about voting in the midterms[6].
- Other recent surveys vary by method: Pew found 30% approval (Sept. 28-Oct. 4)[7]. Rasmussen found 42% among likely voters (Oct. 7)[8]. Averages from RealClearPolitics, The New York Times and Silver Bulletin were between 37% and 38.3% as of Oct. 8[13].
- The midterm elections are on Nov. 3, 2026[1].
The Pressure
Strip away the moralizing and blame. What structural realities persist regardless of which narrative wins?
- The midterm calendar
- The president's party usually loses House seats in midterms. Republicans hold the House 222-213, so a net shift of 5 seats flips control[14]. Every poll this close to Nov. 3 is read as a forecast, even when it was not built to be one.
- Who gets counted
- This is the mechanism behind most of the spread between polls. A poll of adults asks everyone. A registered-voter poll keeps only those on the rolls. A likely-voter poll goes further: the pollster guesses who will actually vote, using past voting and stated interest. Trump's 2024 coalition leaned on less-frequent voters. So screening for likely voters can either help or hurt him, depending on whether those people turn out. That is why Republicans point to likely-voter polls such as Rasmussen's 42%[8], and why the enthusiasm gap matters to Democrats[6]. Reuters/Ipsos's 44%-37% ballot figure is among registered voters, not likely voters[1].
- Subgroup uncertainty
- The 2-point margin of error covers all 4,506 adults[1]. The Hispanic subgroup is a fraction of that, so its margin is wider. The coverage reviewed did not report the subgroup's size. The 24% reading is still consistent with NBC/Telemundo's separate finding of 27% among Latino voters[10].
- Prices and enforcement
- Reuters tied the September drop to high living costs, and its Oct. 8 report cited cost-of-living worries and the war with Iran[3][6]. NBC/Telemundo found Latino voters most concerned about prices and immigration enforcement[10].
Material realityPolls from many firms using different methods put Trump's approval between 30% and 42%. The main averages sit near 37-38%[7][8][13]. Aggregators put Democrats about 7 points ahead on the generic ballot, which asks people which party they would vote for in their House race without naming candidates[14]. Hispanic voters moved toward Trump in 2024, to about 48%, and current polls show much of that move reversing[4][10]. None of these numbers is a vote count. Turnout, district lines and individual candidates will decide the Nov. 3 outcome.
Narrative as a weaponDemocrats and left-leaning outlets want readers to see a collapse, especially among Hispanic voters. Some stretch the point by setting job approval against 2024 vote share. Republicans and the White House want readers to see a 2024-style polling miss in the making and to trust likely-voter polls over polls of all adults. They have not directly rebutted the Reuters numbers. Reuters and other wire outlets frame the story around the poll's own 'record low,' which is accurate but describes a level first reached in September. Foreign outlets largely carried the wire, with Al Jazeera leading on the Hispanic reversal.
How Each Side Sees It
Each major actor’s view — how it frames things, its underlying incentive, and how it’s materially affected. Tap a side to read it.
Frames it asTheir strongest case rests on who actually votes. A poll of all adults counts many people who will not show up. In the 2024 election, Trump beat many polls and won about 48% of Hispanic voters, his best showing[4]. Polls of likely voters show a closer race. Harvard CAPS/Harris had Democrats up just 2 points[9], and Rasmussen had Trump at 42%[8]. In earlier coverage of Hispanic support, White House spokesman Harrison Fields said Latino Americans 'trust him to remove barriers to achieving the American Dream'[15]. Midterms are also local contests, decided district by district, not by a national approval number.
WhyTo hold the House and Senate. To keep donors and volunteers from losing heart. And to protect the 2024 gains with Hispanic voters as a lasting part of the coalition[1][15].
Impact on themA Reuters review found most Republicans in tight races are distancing themselves from Trump[16]. Lower enthusiasm among Trump voters could cut turnout in close districts[6]. Losing the House would hand Democrats subpoena power and control over what bills reach the floor.
Frames it asDemocrats argue the poll matches a broad pattern, not a fluke. Pew found 30%[7]. NBC/Telemundo found 27% among Latino voters[10]. The averages show Democrats about 7 points ahead on the generic ballot[14]. They say voters are judging the cost of living and immigration enforcement[10]. And their own voters are more eager to vote: 48% of Harris voters are 'very enthusiastic,' against 30% of Trump voters[6].
WhyTo win the House and possibly the Senate. To show the 2024 Hispanic shift was temporary. And to keep their own voters motivated rather than overconfident.
Impact on themHistorically, a generic-ballot lead of 5 or more points has gone with gains of about 20-40 House seats. Democrats need a net gain of 5 seats to flip the 222-213 House[14]. That estimate comes from a polling aggregator and is a rule of thumb, not a forecast.
Frames it asHispanic voters are not one bloc. Many who backed Trump in 2024 did so over prices and the economy[4][10]. NBC/Telemundo found Latino voters most concerned about high prices and about Trump's immigration enforcement[10]. To many, a shift now is the same choice they made in 2024: punish whoever is in charge when costs are high. A smaller group of Hispanic Trump supporters back tighter border enforcement.
WhyLower living costs, economic opportunity, and safety from enforcement actions for themselves, their families and their neighbors[10].
Impact on themTheir vote carries extra weight in districts and states with large Latino populations[10]. Reuters reported the 52%-26% split is the largest Democratic edge among them since Trump took office[1].
Frames it asPollsters make different but defensible choices. Reuters/Ipsos surveys all adults, which measures the whole public's view of the president. Likely-voter polls try to predict the electorate, which means guessing who will vote. Neither is wrong. They answer different questions, which is why readings range from 30% to 42%[7][8].
WhyAccuracy and credibility, especially after past misses that underestimated Trump.
Impact on themThe 30%-to-42% spread means a single poll's headline number depends heavily on each firm's method choices, such as adults versus likely voters[7][8].
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The Bias Ledger average rating 3.7
The same story, as framed by outlets across the spectrum, ordered least to most biased. The bias score (1 = straight, 10 = heavily spun) is an AI assessment of that framing — click an outlet to see its track record. The tell is the word choice or omission that reveals the angle.
| Outlet | Vantage | Bias | How they frame it | The tell |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reuters | U.S./international center wire | 2 | Trump approval at record low; Hispanic voters sour on Republicans, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds | 'Record low' is accurate but refers to Reuters/Ipsos's own series, and the low was already reached in September. 'Sour' adds mild color. Reuters gives the sample size and margin of error but does not lead with the fact that the poll counts adults, not likely voters. |
| Forbes | U.S. center-right business | 3 | Trump's Approval Rating Stagnates At Record Low 32% In Latest Poll | 'Stagnates' gives a flat result a negative tint. Otherwise the story is a straight summary that places the poll among others. |
| The Hill | U.S. center | 3 | Trump approval rating mired at record low: Poll | 'Mired' suggests being stuck in something bad. The flat result could just as accurately be called 'unchanged.' |
| Fox News | U.S. right | 3 | Poll reveals Trump's low approval among Latinos as midterms loom | The segment title is straightforward and accepts the finding. Only the title was reviewed, so any on-air framing could not be judged. |
| Al Jazeera | Qatari state-funded | 4 | Trump's approval hits new low among Hispanic voters ahead of midterms | Leads with the subgroup figure, not the steady overall number. It sets the 24% next to Pew's 48% 2024 vote estimate for a stark contrast. That is factual, but it compares job approval with vote share. |
| Joe.My.God | U.S. left (LGBTQ progressive blog) | 7 | Reuters: Trump's Hispanic Support Plummets By Half | 'Plummets by half' compares 24% job approval among all Hispanic adults with a roughly 48% vote share among Hispanic 2024 voters. Those are different measures of different groups, and the headline credits the claim to Reuters, which did not make it. |
References
- Trump Approval at Record Low; Hispanic Voters Sour on Republicans, Reuters/Ipsos Poll Finds — Reuters · International wire service, commercially owned by Thomson Reuters; center
- Trump's Approval Rating Stagnates At Record Low 32% In Latest Poll — Forbes · Business magazine, privately owned; center-right editorial page, news desk mainstream
- Exclusive-Trump Approval Falls to Record Low of 32% as High Costs Bite, Reuters/Ipsos Poll Finds — Reuters · International wire service; center
- Trump's approval hits new low among Hispanic voters ahead of midterms — Al Jazeera · Funded by the government of Qatar
- Trump approval rating mired at record low: Poll — The Hill · Washington political outlet owned by Nexstar Media; center
- Trump Voters Are Not Pumped About Voting in the Midterms, Reuters/Ipsos Poll Finds — Reuters · International wire service; center
- Democratic Voters More Engaged in Midterms as Americans Are in a Sour Mood — Pew Research Center · Nonprofit funded mainly by the Pew Charitable Trusts; nonadvocacy survey research
- Daily Presidential Tracking Poll — Rasmussen Reports · Private pollster; results have historically leaned more favorable to Republicans than the average
- September Harvard Caps / Harris Poll: Democrats Hold A 2-Point Lead Among Likely Voters in Midterms Horserace, With Trump Approval Hitting a Low Of 42% — Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll · Harris Poll is run by Stagwell, chaired by Mark Penn, a former Clinton adviser whose recent commentary has been friendly to Trump; partnership with a Harvard center
- Poll: Latino voters swing away from Trump and Republicans — NBC News · U.S. broadcast network owned by Comcast; center-left
- Poll reveals Trump's low approval among Latinos as midterms loom — Fox News · U.S. cable network owned by Fox Corp.; right
- Reuters: Trump's Hispanic Support Plummets By Half — Joe.My.God · Independent progressive LGBTQ political blog; left
- Donald Trump approval rating: What polls show ahead of 2026 midterm elections — Yahoo News · News aggregator/publisher owned by Apollo Global Management; center
- Generic Ballot October 2026: D+7.4 — House Forecast, Pollster Breakdown & Monthly Trend — USPollingData · Independent polling aggregator; ownership and methods not fully disclosed
- Hispanics helped Trump retake the White House. Now their support is waning — Yahoo News · News aggregator/publisher owned by Apollo Global Management; center
- Most Republicans in tight midterm races distance themselves from Trump, Reuters review finds — Reuters · International wire service; center