Kospi Closes Up 3.09% at 5,638 on Chip Buying as U.S. Futures Hover Near Flat Ahead of Fed Decision
Samsung and SK hynix led Seoul higher after Anthropic's IPO filing. U.S. index futures moved between slight gains and slight losses on Tuesday, and a fire near Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura oil hub kept Brent crude near $116.
Seoul Jumped 3%, Wall Street Didn't Move
The Kospi, South Korea's main stock index, closed Tuesday at 5,638.34. That was up 3.09% and its first gain in four sessions[1]. SK hynix rose 5.18% to 1.34 million won. Samsung Electronics rose 4.23% to 222,000 won[4].
Across the Pacific, almost nothing happened. U.S. stock index futures are contracts that bet on where the market will open. They drifted around flat all day. Monday's gains were neither extended nor reversed[7][8].
So why did one market leap while the other held still? The answer starts with a document filed in Washington.
The Filing Behind the Chip Rally
Anthropic filed its public IPO prospectus on Monday. Analysts and Korean media tied Tuesday's buying to it[1][2]. Memory chips from SK hynix and Samsung are a key input for AI data centers. More AI revenue should mean more chip orders[2].
The filing showed $16.29 billion in revenue for the six months through June. A year earlier, that figure was $1.16 billion. The company plans to list on the Nasdaq under the ticker "ANT"[14][15].
Foreign investors bought a net 592.97 billion won of Korean shares. Institutions bought 280.38 billion won. Individual investors sold a net 947.78 billion won[3]. Korean outlets framed the day as a rebound and a vote of confidence from abroad[2][3][4]. The big individual selling got less space in that framing.
A Loss Number Both Sides Use
The same filing shows an $80.7 billion net loss for the half. About $72.4 billion of that is non-cash. It comes from changes in the fair value of convertible instruments, which are investor deals that can turn into shares[15]. That charge grows as the company's valuation grows. The filing also shows a second-quarter operating profit of about $974 million[14][15].
Bulls read this as proof that businesses pay for AI rather than just testing it. They add that the Kospi's four-day slide was about nerves, not fundamentals[1]. One Korean brokerage, iM Securities, projects the Kospi at 7,500 next year. It says chips alone won't get it there[23].
Skeptics agree most of the loss is non-cash. They say the cash picture is the real issue. Mitrade, a brokerage's commentary arm, called the headline loss "the decoy" and the roughly $450 billion compute bill "the risk"[19]. A compute commitment is a long-term promise to pay cloud providers for computing power. The bill comes due whether or not revenue arrives.
Another analysis argued that Anthropic's chip-lease debt finds buyers only because Broadcom stands behind it[22]. For skeptics, the test is whether this week's Big Tech earnings show the spending paying off. Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon report later this week[6].
Why the Futures Readings Don't Match
Reports of U.S. futures differ because they were taken at different times. TipRanks had Nasdaq-100 futures up 0.07% at 5:37 a.m. Eastern[8]. Bloomberg called them flat[7]. Yahoo Finance later reported a 0.3% drop[6].
None of these is wrong. A nearly flat morning looks like a gain or a loss depending on the minute you check. Bloomberg's headline said the "rally fades"[7]. That leans bearish for what was a tiny move.
Monday had been stronger. The Dow rose 0.3%, the S&P 500 0.7% and the Nasdaq Composite 0.8%[6]. Investors are now waiting on the Federal Reserve.
Oil, a Fire and the Fed
The Fed meets October 27–28. Its target range is 3.75% to 4% after a September hike. Futures pricing showed about a 90% chance of no change[16][8]. The decision comes at 2 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday[17].
Oil complicates that. Brent crude rose 0.6% to $116.50 a barrel, and WTI rose 0.7% to $102.50. Both are up about 13% this month[13]. The $116.50 print depends on timing, like the futures. Oil is near $116 after months of war involving Iran. That raises fuel and shipping costs across the economy[16].
Traders see a December hike as firmly possible[16]. Higher rates hit growth stocks in a specific way. Their value rests on profits expected years from now. When rates rise, those profits are worth less today. So investors pay less for the shares.
What Burned Near Ras Tanura
Early Tuesday, a fire broke out near Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia's biggest oil export terminal. Bloomberg reported that Saudi authorities contained it, and that the extent of damage was not clear[10]. Saudi Arabia said its air defenses destroyed three Houthi ballistic missiles fired toward its eastern region[10]. Aramco and the Energy Ministry had not commented at the time of reporting[11].
Accounts of the fire differ. Iranian state broadcaster IRIB, citing Arab media, said the refinery itself was "targeted by missiles" with "powerful explosions"[12]. That was not confirmed. Türkiye Today put "Houthi attack" in its headline[13]. The reports reviewed did not establish a link between the intercepted missiles and the fire.
Each side has a stake. Riyadh wants to show its supply is reliable and the damage limited. The Houthis and their backers want to show they can reach key Saudi oil sites. A day earlier, the Saudi-led coalition said it struck Houthi missile sites[20].
Ras Tanura holds tanker-loading berths, the kingdom's biggest refinery and large storage tanks[11]. Any confirmed damage would hit global supply. For now, three questions stay open: how much was damaged, whether Wednesday's Fed decision hints at a December hike, and whether this week's earnings back up the AI rally.
Summary
South Korea's main stock index, the Kospi, closed up 3.09% at 5,638.34 on Tuesday, October 27. It was the index's first gain in four sessions[1]. Chipmakers led the move. SK hynix rose 5.18% and Samsung Electronics rose 4.23%[4]. Analysts and local media tied the buying to Anthropic's public IPO filing on Monday. Investors read the filing as a sign that demand for AI chips will last[1][2].
In the U.S., the AI rally that lifted stocks on Monday stalled[7]. On Monday the S&P 500 had risen 0.7% and the Nasdaq Composite 0.8%[6]. Tuesday's futures readings varied with the time of day. TipRanks had Nasdaq-100 futures up 0.07% at 5:37 a.m. Eastern[8]. Bloomberg called them flat[7]. Yahoo Finance later reported a 0.3% drop[6]. Investors are waiting on two things. The Federal Reserve announces its rate decision Wednesday afternoon[17]. Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon report earnings later this week[6].
Oil is the third pressure. A fire broke out early Tuesday near Saudi Arabia's biggest oil export terminal, at Ras Tanura. Bloomberg reported that Saudi authorities had contained it[10]. Saudi Arabia said its air defenses destroyed three ballistic missiles that Yemen's Houthis fired toward the east of the country. Bloomberg reported the extent of the damage was not clear[10][11]. Iranian state media, citing Arab media, described a direct missile strike on the refinery[12]. That claim had not been confirmed. Brent crude traded near $116.50 a barrel. That is up about 13% this month[13].
The main dispute is over what the AI rally means. Bulls say Anthropic's revenue growth, and a reported $974 million operating profit in the second quarter, show that AI spending pays off[14][2]. Skeptics point to the company's $80.7 billion first-half net loss, most of it a non-cash accounting charge, and to its huge computing commitments[19][15]. They say the proof will come from this week's Big Tech earnings. Meanwhile, high oil prices are keeping the Fed leaning toward higher rates. Higher rates make expensive growth stocks harder to justify[16].
The Event
On Tuesday, October 27, 2026, the Kospi closed at 5,638.34, up 3.09%. Samsung Electronics and SK hynix led the gains[1][4]. U.S. stock index futures traded in a narrow range around flat. Readings ran from up 0.07% to down 0.3% for Nasdaq-100 contracts, depending on the time[6][7][8]. A fire broke out early that day near Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura export hub and was contained. Saudi Arabia said it intercepted three Houthi ballistic missiles fired toward its eastern region[10].
Undisputed Facts
- The Kospi closed at 5,638.34 on October 27, up 3.09%. It was its first daily gain in four sessions[1].
- SK hynix rose 5.18% to 1.34 million won. Samsung Electronics rose 4.23% to 222,000 won[4].
- Foreign investors bought a net 592.97 billion won of Korean shares and institutions bought 280.38 billion won. Individual investors sold a net 947.78 billion won[3].
- On Monday, October 26, the Dow rose 0.3%, the S&P 500 0.7% and the Nasdaq Composite 0.8%[6].
- Anthropic's public prospectus showed $16.29 billion in revenue for the six months through June. A year earlier the figure was $1.16 billion. It also showed an $80.7 billion net loss, of which about $72.4 billion was non-cash changes in the fair value of convertible instruments, and a second-quarter operating profit of about $974 million. The company plans to list on the Nasdaq under the ticker 'ANT'[14][15].
- The Fed meets October 27–28. Its current target range is 3.75% to 4% after a September hike. Futures pricing showed about a 90% chance of no change on Wednesday[16][8].
- A fire near the Ras Tanura oil hub was contained early Tuesday. Saudi Arabia said it destroyed three Houthi ballistic missiles aimed at its eastern region[10].
- Brent crude rose 0.6% to $116.50 a barrel and WTI rose 0.7% to $102.50. Both are up about 13% so far in October[13].
The Pressure
Strip away the moralizing and blame. What structural realities persist regardless of which narrative wins?
- AI capital spending must start paying back
- Chip stocks in Seoul and the Nasdaq are priced for years of AI data-center buildout. That buildout lasts only if companies like Anthropic, Microsoft and Alphabet turn spending into profit. That is why this week's earnings matter more than any single filing[2][14].
- Oil-driven inflation limits the Fed
- With Brent near $116 and a September hike behind it, the Fed has little room to ease. Traders still price possible further hikes[16][13].
- Physical exposure of Gulf energy sites
- Ras Tanura combines export berths, a major refinery and storage in one place. Repeated Houthi attacks on Saudi sites mean supply risk stays in prices even when a fire is contained[11][10].
Material realityThe Kospi closed at 5,638.34, and foreign money led the buying[1][3]. U.S. futures barely moved, so Monday's gains were neither extended nor reversed[7][8]. Brent near $116.50 is a real cost for fuel buyers whatever the full Ras Tanura damage turns out to be[13]. The Fed's range of 3.75% to 4% and its Wednesday decision set the cost of money that all of these valuations depend on[16].
Narrative as a weaponThree groups are shaping how this day is read. AI-friendly business coverage casts Anthropic's revenue as proof that the AI trade works[14][2]. Skeptical analysts recast the same filing as a warning about losses and computing bills[19][22]. On oil, Iranian state media pushes the most escalatory account of Ras Tanura[12]. Saudi statements stress a successful interception[10]. Some outlets blur the two by stating Houthi blame as settled[13]. The assigned dek's phrase 'fire at Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery' goes further than Bloomberg's report, which placed the fire 'near' the export terminal[10]. Futures figures quoted without a time stamp can make a nearly flat morning look like a rise or a drop[6][8].
How Each Side Sees It
Each major actor’s view — how it frames things, its underlying incentive, and how it’s materially affected. Tap a side to read it.
Frames it asTheir case starts with revenue. Anthropic's first-half sales rose to $16.29 billion from $1.16 billion a year earlier[14]. To bulls, that shows businesses are paying for AI rather than just testing it. They also note that most of the $80.7 billion net loss is a non-cash fair-value charge that rises as the company's valuation rises, and that the company reported a second-quarter operating profit[15]. Memory chips made by SK hynix and Samsung are a key input for AI data centers. So more AI revenue points to more chip orders[2]. Bulls also argue the Kospi's past four-day slide was about nerves, not fundamentals. On that view, the IPO filing was a reason to buy back in[1]. A Korean brokerage, iM Securities, projects the Kospi at 7,500 next year. It added that chips alone won't get it there[23].
WhyThey want proof that AI spending turns into profit, so that high stock prices hold up. A successful Anthropic IPO, reported for the week of November 16, would support that case[15].
Impact on themForeign and institutional buyers put about 873 billion won into Korean stocks on Tuesday[3]. Gains or losses on chip stocks drive much of the Kospi's value[2].
Frames it asTheir argument rests on costs and commitments, not revenue. Anthropic reported an $80.7 billion net loss in the first half. Skeptics concede most of it is non-cash, but argue the cash picture is the real issue[15]. One analysis called the headline loss 'the decoy' and said the real risk is the roughly $450 billion compute bill[19]. A compute commitment is a long-term promise to pay cloud providers for computing power whether or not the revenue arrives. If growth slows, those payments still come due. Another analysis argued that Anthropic's chip-lease debt finds buyers only because Broadcom stands behind it[22]. To skeptics, the question is whether this week's Big Tech earnings show the spending paying off.
WhyThey want prices that reflect the risk that AI investment runs ahead of demand. Some are positioned to profit if the rally fades.
Impact on themTuesday's stalled futures after Monday's gains match their view that enthusiasm over the filing alone has limits[7].
Frames it asThe Fed's job is to keep inflation in check. Oil is near $116 after months of war involving Iran. That pushes up fuel and shipping costs across the economy[16]. The Fed raised rates in September. Markets expect a pause Wednesday, but traders see a December hike as firmly possible[16]. From the inflation-fighters' view, pausing too long risks letting price increases spread. Higher rates hit growth stocks in a specific way. Their value rests on profits expected years from now. When rates rise, those future profits are worth less today, so investors pay less for the shares.
WhyKeep inflation expectations anchored without stalling the economy.
Impact on themThe decision lands at 2 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday, October 28[17]. Any hint of a December hike could weigh on the AI stocks that rallied this week[16].
Frames it asSaudi Arabia says its air defenses work: it reported destroying three Houthi ballistic missiles[10]. A day earlier, the Saudi-led coalition said it struck Houthi missile sites[20]. The Houthis have repeatedly targeted Saudi energy sites in recent weeks, including Aramco's headquarters and western refineries[10]. Iranian state media's account stressed a direct refinery hit with large explosions[12]. That account was attributed to Arab media and was not confirmed.
WhyRiyadh wants to show that its supply is reliable and that the damage is limited. The Houthis and their backers want to show they can reach Saudi Arabia's key oil sites and raise the cost of the war.
Impact on themRas Tanura has tanker-loading berths, the kingdom's biggest refinery and large storage tanks[11]. Any confirmed damage would hit global supply. Oil already rose about 13% in October[13].
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The Bias Ledger average rating 4.3
The same story, as framed by outlets across the spectrum, ordered least to most biased. The bias score (1 = straight, 10 = heavily spun) is an AI assessment of that framing — click an outlet to see its track record. The tell is the word choice or omission that reveals the angle.
| Outlet | Vantage | Bias | How they frame it | The tell |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bloomberg | U.S. center (business) | 2 | US Stock Futures Slip as Tech Earnings Rally Fades: Markets Wrap; Aramco Contains Fire Near Ras Tanura Oil Hub After Attack | Careful about location: 'near' the hub, damage 'not immediately clear.' 'Rally fades' leans slightly bearish for what was a nearly flat move. |
| Associated Press | U.S. center | 2 | AI rally pushes Asian stocks higher, while oil prices ease | Straight wire framing. The 'oil prices ease' reading was taken before oil reversed higher after the Ras Tanura reports. The time stamp matters. |
| Korea JoongAng Daily | South Korean (center-right daily) | 3 | Kospi surges 3% as AI optimism lifts Samsung Electronics and SK hynix | 'Surges' and 'optimism' cast the day as a national-champion rebound. The large individual net selling gets less weight. |
| Fox Business | U.S. right (business) | 4 | Anthropic files prospectus ahead of highly-anticipated IPO | 'Highly-anticipated' and a revenue-first lead. The huge net loss and compute commitments get little prominence. |
| Türkiye Today | Turkish (English-language, pro-government ownership) | 5 | Oil prices rise as Saudi Ras Tanura hub catches fire after Houthi attack | States Houthi responsibility for the fire outright. Saudi Arabia said it intercepted the missiles, and the link to the fire was not established in the reports reviewed. |
| Mitrade | Brokerage-affiliated market commentary | 6 | Anthropic files for a $2 trillion IPO — the $80.7 billion loss is the decoy, the $450 billion compute bill is the risk | Argumentative, skeptic framing. '$2 trillion' presents the top of a media-reported range as the valuation. |
| IRIB | Iranian state | 8 | Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery (550k BPD) was reportedly targeted by missiles, triggering powerful explosions and large plumes of smoke | Escalatory wording ('powerful explosions') built on unnamed 'Arab media'. Leaves out the Saudi interception claim. |
References
- Kospi Jumps Over 3% on Anthropic Boost, Ending Four-Day Slump — SBS · South Korean commercial broadcaster; center
- Kospi surges 3% as AI optimism lifts Samsung Electronics and SK hynix — Korea JoongAng Daily · English edition of JoongAng Ilbo; South Korean center-right
- KOSPI jumps over 3 percent to close at 5,638 led by foreigners and institutions — Digital Today · South Korean tech/business trade outlet; relays Yonhap/exchange data
- Samsung Rises 4%, SK hynix 5% as AI Sentiment Rebounds — Seoul Economic Daily · South Korean business daily; pro-market
- AI rally pushes Asian stocks higher, while oil prices ease — Associated Press · U.S. nonprofit cooperative wire; center
- Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq drift lower as tech slides — Yahoo Finance · U.S. ad-funded business portal (Apollo-owned); center
- US Stock Futures Slip as Tech Earnings Rally Fades: Markets Wrap — Bloomberg · U.S. subscription business wire; center, investor-oriented
- Stock Market Today, Oct. 27: Futures Edge Higher Ahead of Key Earnings and the Fed's Rate Decision — TipRanks · Investor-research platform; retail-investor oriented
- US stock futures muted as oil holds near April highs ahead of Fed decision — Reuters · Global commercial wire (Thomson Reuters); center
- Aramco contains fire near Ras Tanura oil hub after attack — Bloomberg — Bloomberg · U.S. business wire (republished by Malaysia's The Edge); center
- Saudi Arabia contains fire near Ras Tanura oil export terminal after attack, Bloomberg News reports — Bloomberg · U.S. business wire (relayed by MarketScreener); center
- Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery (550k BPD) was reportedly targeted by missiles... Iranian state media IRIB reports, citing Arab media — IRIB · Iranian state broadcaster (government-controlled), relayed by the Newsquawk subscription service
- Oil prices rise as Saudi Ras Tanura hub catches fire after Houthi attack — Türkiye Today · Turkish English-language outlet; owned by a pro-government media group
- Anthropic files prospectus ahead of highly-anticipated IPO — Fox Business · U.S. right-leaning business network (Fox Corp.)
- Dow rises 200 points as oil falls and chip stocks rally ahead of a Fed decision — Quartz · U.S. business news site (G/O Media); center
- Asian stocks surge as Anthropic IPO lifts sentiment ahead of earnings, central banks — Reuters · Global commercial wire (Thomson Reuters); center
- Stock Market Today (Oct. 27, 2026): Nasdaq futures edge lower as Wall Street gears up for earnings, Fed meeting — TheStreet · U.S. investor-oriented business site (Arena Group); center
- Stocks Climb as Wall Street Braces for Fed Decision and Big Tech Earnings — Conservative Daily News · U.S. right-wing aggregator/blog
- Anthropic files for a $2 trillion IPO — the $80.7 billion loss is the decoy, the $450 billion compute bill is the risk — Mitrade · CFD brokerage's commentary arm; commercial interest in trading activity
- Saudi-led coalition says it struck Houthi missile facilities — Al Jazeera · Qatari state-funded broadcaster
- Dow Jones Futures gain after Wall Street opens week with gains — FXStreet · Forex/markets trading news site; trader-oriented
- AI paper clears only because Broadcom underwrites Anthropic's chip lease — FXStreet · Forex/markets trading site; contributed analysis, skeptical of AI financing
- iM Securities Sees KOSPI at 7,500 Next Year but Says Chips Alone Won't Do It — Seoul Economic Daily · South Korean business daily; relays brokerage forecasts